Effect of Climate Change on CPEC Route due to Precipitation Variation
Erum Aamira b c d e f✉, Noor E Fatima, Naz F
- aChina Study Centre CSC, National University of Science & Technology, Pakistan
- bMeteorological Department
- cGCRI: Global Climate
- dSchool of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE), National University of Science & Technology, H12 Islamabad, Pakistan
- eSchool of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE), National University of Science & Technology, Pakistan
- fSchool of Social Sciences and Humanities, National University of Sciences and Technology, Pakistan
- ✉Corresponding author
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Abstract
China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) the game changer not only for Pakistan but also for Asia is nominated for the study area of this research. The maximum portion of CPCE passes through Baluchistan province. Baluchistan province has plains, valleys, mountains, rugged terrain, coastline, and an extreme climate that addresses most of the determinants that affect precipitation. Precipitation in Baluchistan mostly turns into flash floods due to its topography. Flash floods are proven to be more catastrophic and devastating in nature. This study focuses the one of the major aspects of climate change that is variation and trend of precipitation pattern CPEC route. The study investigates the trend of precipitation using nonparametric statistical analysis known as Mann Kendall because when 45 years of precipitation data (1977-2022) was analyzed by four different normality tests it was found to be not normally distributed data. Leading us to the conclusion that a nonparametric test will be applicable to find trend. The monthly precipitation data for selected weather stations along the CPEC route is taken from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). The study provides benefits to the CPEC route in many ways, firstly it provides a trend analysis of precipitation on a monthly, yearly, and seasonal basis, by two methods i) the conventional graphical method and ii) the nonparametric technique known as the Mann-Kendall test. Secondly, the study selected the 9 most common climate indices that affect Pakistan’s climate and precipitation trends by literature review and studying the impact of all the climate indices by applying Person’s correlation. Person’s correlation investigates the linear association of Climatic Indices with Precipitation, and lastly Partial Mann–Kendall for observing the impact of teleconnections on precipitation patterns. This study is the first statistical analysis of the CPCE route and the effect of climate indices on CPEC routes to due precipitation variation and climate indices. This research will provide a baseline study for future comparative studies tracing the effects of CPEC on Precipitation patterns. The research addresses 2 SDGs namely SDG # 11.5 (natural disasters) and SDG#13 (climate action).