A. Carter

Most-cited papers

1. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

   Haidong Mohsen Christine Ryan M Zulfiqar A Austin Daniel C Wang Naghavi Allen Barber Bhutta Carter Casey Char, Haidong Wang, M. Naghavi, Christine A. Allen +496 more

   2016The Lancet5,403 citations Open access

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2. Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories

   K. Foreman, Neal Marquez, Andrew J Dolgert, K. Fukutaki +34 more

   2018The Lancet2,258 citations Open access

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3. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990–2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

   N. Kassebaum, M. Arora, Ryan M. Barber, Z. Bhutta +208 more

   20161,780 citations

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4. Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21

   Haidong Wang, K. Paulson, Spencer A. Pease, S. Watson +92 more

   2022The Lancet1,447 citations Open access

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5. The State of US Health, 1990-2016: Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Among US States

   A. Mokdad, Katherine Ballestros, M. Echko, S. Glenn +111 more

   2018Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA)1,333 citations Open access

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6. Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters Following Symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021.

   Sarah Wulf Hanson, C. Abbafati, J. Aerts, Ziyad Al-Aly +123 more

   2022Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA)725 citations Open access

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7. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

   D. Dicker, Grant Nguyen, D. Abate, K. Abate +496 more

   2018The Lancet627 citations Open access

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8. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

   Haidong Tim M Austin Grant Hmwe Hmwe Emmanuela Simon I Edw Wang Wolock Carter Nguyen Kyu Gakidou Hay Mills Tr, Haidong Wang, Timothy M. Wolock, A. Carter +451 more

   2016The Lancet HIV597 citations Open access

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9. Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization

   Andrew J. Shattock, H. Johnson, So Yoon Sim, A. Carter +17 more

   2024The Lancet495 citations Open access

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10. Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    Stephen S Kate Zulfiqar A Lalit Mohammad H Nancy Peter W E Lim Allen Bhutta Dandona Forouzanfar Fullman Gethi, Stephen S. Lim, K. Allen, Z. Bhutta +496 more

    2016The Lancet475 citations Open access

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11. Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017

    L. Dwyer-Lindgren, Michael A. Cork, Amber Sligar, Krista M. Steuben +37 more

    2019Nature450 citations Open access

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12. Burden of 375 diseases and injuries, risk-attributable burden of 88 risk factors, and healthy life expectancy in 204 countries and territories, including 660 subnational locations, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

    S. Hay, K. Ong, D. Santomauro, B. A +496 more

    2025The Lancet401 citations Open access

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13. The global burden of tuberculosis: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    H. Kyu, E. Maddison, N. Henry, J. Mumford +127 more

    2017Lancet. Infectious Diseases (Print)359 citations Open access

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14. Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021

    Thomas J. Bollyky, E. Hulland, Ryan M. Barber, James Collins +81 more

    2022The Lancet351 citations Open access

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15. Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015

    N. Kassebaum, H. Kyu, Leo Zoeckler, H. Olsen +249 more

    2017JAMA pediatrics325 citations Open access

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16. Variation in the COVID-19 infection–fatality ratio by age, time, and geography during the pre-vaccine era: a systematic analysis

    R. Sorensen, Ryan M. Barber, D. Pigott, A. Carter +104 more

    2022The Lancet240 citations Open access

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17. Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis

    Ryan M. Barber, R. Sorensen, D. Pigott, Catherine Bisignano +68 more

    2022The Lancet232 citations Open access

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18. Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990–2016: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study

    H. Kyu, E. Maddison, N. Henry, J. R. Ledesma +150 more

    2018Lancet. Infectious Diseases (Print)171 citations Open access

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19. Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950–2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

    Austin E. Schumacher, P. Zheng, Ryan M. Barber, B. A +496 more

    2025The Lancet159 citations Open access

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20. Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990–2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Austin Meixin Khai Hoan Magdalene K Deepa Edmond D Amanda Carter Zhang Tram Walters Jahagirdar Brewer Novotn, A. Carter, Meixin Zhang, K. Tram +496 more

    2024The Lancet HIV132 citations Open access

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21. Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis

    Thomas J. Bollyky, Emma Castro, A. Aravkin, K. Bhangdia +54 more

    2023The Lancet108 citations Open access

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22. Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    J. R. Ledesma, Jianing Ma, Meixin Zhang, Ann Basting +440 more

    2024Lancet. Infectious Diseases (Print)95 citations Open access

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23. Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

    Jorge R Jianing Avina Emilie R Amanda Molly H Kate E Jen Ledesma Ma Vongpradith Maddison Novotney Biehl LeG, J. R. Ledesma, Jianing Ma, Avina Vongpradith +329 more

    2021Lancet. Infectious Diseases (Print)92 citations Open access

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24. Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

    Deepa Jahagirdar, Magdalene K. Walters, Amanda Novotney, Edmond D Brewer +395 more

    2021The Lancet HIV89 citations Open access

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25. Modeling the impact of vaccination for the immunization Agenda 2030: Deaths averted due to vaccination against 14 pathogens in 194 countries from 2021 to 2030.

    A. Carter, W. Msemburi, S. Sim, K. Gaythorpe +3 more

    2023Vaccine82 citations Open access

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26. A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021

    S. Hanson, C. Abbafati, J. Aerts, Ziyad Al-Aly +124 more

    2022medRxiv82 citations Open access

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27. Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models

    Joseph Friedman, Patrick Y. Liu, Christopher E. Troeger, A. Carter +9 more

    2020medRxiv82 citations Open access

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28. Global, regional, and national burden of upper respiratory infections and otitis media, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

    Sarah Brooke Sirota, M. Doxey, R. Dominguez, Rose G. Bender +496 more

    2024Lancet. Infectious Diseases (Print)81 citations Open access

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29. Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models

    Joseph Friedman, Patrick Y. Liu, Christopher E. Troeger, A. Carter +9 more

    2021Nature Communications81 citations Open access

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30. Global burden of lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.

    Sarah Brooke Sirota, Rose G. Bender, R. Dominguez, Amanda Movo +496 more

    2025Lancet. Infectious Diseases (Print)67 citations Open access

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31. The Burden of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2016: Evidence from the Global Burden of Diseases 2016 Study

    A. Deribew, S. Biadgilign, K. Deribe, T. Dejene +14 more

    2019Ethiopian Journal of Health Sciences57 citations Open access

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32. Modeling the Impact of Vaccination for the Immunization Agenda 2030: Deaths Averted Due to Vaccination Against 14 Pathogens in 194 Countries from 2021-2030

    A. Carter, W. Msemburi, S. Sim, K. Gaythorpe +2 more

    2021Social Science Research Network53 citations Open access

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33. Erratum: Global, regional, and national levels of maternal mortality, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (The Lancet (2016) 388(10053) (1775–1812)(S0140673616314702)(10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31470-2))

    N. Kassebaum, Ryan M. Barber, L. Dandona, L. Dandona +496 more

    201727 citations Open access

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34. A framework for identifying and learning from countries that demonstrated exemplary performance in improving health outcomes and systems

    A. Carter, N. Akseer, Kevin Ho, Oliver Rothschild +9 more

    2020BMJ Global Health25 citations Open access

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35. Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019.

    H. Kyu, Deepa Jahagirdar, Magdalene K. Walters, Amanda Novotney +452 more

    2021The Lancet HIV23 citations Open access

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36. Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern Mediterranean countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

    C. El Bcheraoui, Haidong Wang, R. Charara, I. Khalil +190 more

    2017International Journal of Public Health22 citations Open access

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37. Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories

    K. Foreman, Neal Marquez, Andrew J Dolgert, K. Fukutaki +33 more

    201813 citations

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38. Global burden of enteric infectious diseases, diarrhoeal diseases, and corresponding aetiologies, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.

    Avina Vongpradith, R. Dominguez, Lorainne Tudor Car, Amanda Movo +496 more

    2026Lancet. Infectious Diseases (Print)10 citations Open access

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39. HIV-related mortality time trends among children and young adolescents on antiretroviral therapy by age, treatment duration, and region: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis

    Jia-Wei He, Edmond D Brewer, Amanda Novotney, A. Carter +22 more

    2025The Lancet HIV5 citations Open access

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40. Infection age as a predictor of epidemiological metrics for malaria

    J. M. Henry, A. Carter, David L. Smith

    2021Malaria Journal5 citations Open access

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41. Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990-2023, with the estimated burden attributable to intimate partner violence and forecasted impacts of funding cuts through 2030: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.

    A. Carter, Meixin Zhang, B. Trejo, M. Verma +496 more

    2026The Lancet HIV1 citations Open access

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42. Comparative Analysis of HIV Estimation Methods and Results in Locations with Case Reports and High-Quality Vital Registration Data

    A. Carter

    20181 citations

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43. Department of Error

    N. Kassebaum, Ryan M. Barber, L. Dandona, Simon Iain Hay +496 more

    2017The Lancet1 citations Open access

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44. A Probabilistic Synthesis of Malaria Epidemiology: Exposure, Infection, Parasite Densities, and Detection

    J. M. Henry, A. Carter, Sean L. Wu, David L. Smith

    2025medRxiv0 citations Open access

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45. F RACTION OF F EVER IN C OHORT S TUDIES THROUGH A B EFORE AND A FTER C OMPARISON OF I MPACT : N AGONGERA , T ORORO , U GANDA 2011-2019

    J. Rek, D. Galick, Emily C. Hilton, J. M. Henry +13 more

    20220 citations

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46. GBD 2017 and HIV estimates for Taiwan - Authors' reply.

    H. Kyu, Deepa Jahagirdar, A. Carter, C. Murray

    2020The Lancet HIV0 citations Open access

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47. Erratum: Correction to Lancet HIV ((2016) 3 (e361–87)(S235230181630087X)(10.1016/S2352-3018(16)30087-X)

    Hai-Cheng Wang, Timothy M. Wolock, A. Carter, Grant Nguyen +450 more

    20160 citations Open access

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