1e:I[23489,["/_next/static/immutable/chunks/0cmb0ng968nlp.js","/_next/static/immutable/chunks/1c7dg80qt12uw.js","/_next/static/immutable/chunks/2bmdwv49ba1qx.js","/_next/static/immutable/chunks/3ld61_1ghpsxn.js"],"ShareMenu"] 1f:I[55078,["/_next/static/immutable/chunks/0cmb0ng968nlp.js","/_next/static/immutable/chunks/1c7dg80qt12uw.js","/_next/static/immutable/chunks/2bmdwv49ba1qx.js","/_next/static/immutable/chunks/3ld61_1ghpsxn.js"],"AuthorMetricsPanel"] 20:I[39060,["/_next/static/immutable/chunks/0cmb0ng968nlp.js","/_next/static/immutable/chunks/1c7dg80qt12uw.js","/_next/static/immutable/chunks/2bmdwv49ba1qx.js","/_next/static/immutable/chunks/3ld61_1ghpsxn.js"],"AuthorPapers"] 4a:I[49310,["/_next/static/immutable/chunks/0cmb0ng968nlp.js","/_next/static/immutable/chunks/1c7dg80qt12uw.js"],"IconMark"] 21:Tfc5,BACKGROUND: As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS: Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). INTERPRETATION: The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.22:T9be,BACKGROUND: Sepsis is life-threatening organ dysfunction due to a dysregulated host response to infection. It is considered a major cause of health loss, but data for the global burden of sepsis are limited. As a syndrome caused by underlying infection, sepsis is not part of standard Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) estimates. Accurate estimates are important to inform and monitor health policy interventions, allocation of resources, and clinical treatment initiatives. We estimated the global, regional, and national incidence of sepsis and mortality from this disorder using data from GBD 2017. METHODS: We used multiple cause-of-death data from 109 million individual death records to calculate mortality related to sepsis among each of the 282 underlying causes of death in GBD 2017. The percentage of sepsis-related deaths by underlying GBD cause in each location worldwide was modelled using mixed-effects linear regression. Sepsis-related mortality for each age group, sex, location, GBD cause, and year (1990-2017) was estimated by applying modelled cause-specific fractions to GBD 2017 cause-of-death estimates. We used data for 8·7 million individual hospital records to calculate in-hospital sepsis-associated case-fatality, stratified by underlying GBD cause. In-hospital sepsis-associated case-fatality was modelled for each location using linear regression, and sepsis incidence was estimated by applying modelled case-fatality to sepsis-related mortality estimates. FINDINGS: In 2017, an estimated 48·9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·9-62·9) incident cases of sepsis were recorded worldwide and 11·0 million (10·1-12·0) sepsis-related deaths were reported, representing 19·7% (18·2-21·4) of all global deaths. Age-standardised sepsis incidence fell by 37·0% (95% UI 11·8-54·5) and mortality decreased by 52·8% (47·7-57·5) from 1990 to 2017. Sepsis incidence and mortality varied substantially across regions, with the highest burden in sub-Saharan Africa, Oceania, south Asia, east Asia, and southeast Asia. INTERPRETATION: Despite declining age-standardised incidence and mortality, sepsis remains a major cause of health loss worldwide and has an especially high health-related burden in sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the University of Pittsburgh, the British Columbia Children's Hospital Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, and the Fleming Fund.23:T1752,BACKGROUND: Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. METHODS: We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. FINDINGS: The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. INTERPRETATION: The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.24:T10c3,BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.25:Tce3,BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages. METHODS: We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000-16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016. FINDINGS: In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475-720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749-1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584-2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445-1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7-69·6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.26:T1212,BACKGROUND: Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries. FINDINGS: In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1·32 million (95% UI 1·27-1·45) deaths (440 000 [416 000-518 000; 33·3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66·7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2·4% (2·3-2·6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1·9% (1·8-2·0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21·0 (19·2-22·3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16·5 (15·8-18·1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32·2 [25·8-38·6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10·1 [9·8-10·5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3·7 [3·3-4·0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103·3 [64·4-133·4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10·6 million (10·3-10·9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33·2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54·8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases more than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI. INTERPRETATION: Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.27:Ta61,Introduction: Several studies have measured health outcomes in the United States, but none have provided a comprehensive assessment of patterns of health by state. Objective: To use the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to report trends in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors at the state level from 1990 to 2016. Design and Setting: A systematic analysis of published studies and available data sources estimates the burden of disease by age, sex, geography, and year. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 causes and 84 risk factors with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. Results: Between 1990 and 2016, overall death rates in the United States declined from 745.2 (95% UI, 740.6 to 749.8) per 100 000 persons to 578.0 (95% UI, 569.4 to 587.1) per 100 000 persons. The probability of death among adults aged 20 to 55 years declined in 31 states and Washington, DC from 1990 to 2016. In 2016, Hawaii had the highest life expectancy at birth (81.3 years) and Mississippi had the lowest (74.7 years), a 6.6-year difference. Minnesota had the highest HALE at birth (70.3 years), and West Virginia had the lowest (63.8 years), a 6.5-year difference. The leading causes of DALYs in the United States for 1990 and 2016 were ischemic heart disease and lung cancer, while the third leading cause in 1990 was low back pain, and the third leading cause in 2016 was chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Opioid use disorders moved from the 11th leading cause of DALYs in 1990 to the 7th leading cause in 2016, representing a 74.5% (95% UI, 42.8% to 93.9%) change. In 2016, each of the following 6 risks individually accounted for more than 5% of risk-attributable DALYs: tobacco consumption, high body mass index (BMI), poor diet, alcohol and drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high blood pressure. Across all US states, the top risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs were due to 1 of the 3 following causes: tobacco consumption (32 states), high BMI (10 states), or alcohol and drug use (8 states). Conclusions and Relevance: There are wide differences in the burden of disease at the state level. Specific diseases and risk factors, such as drug use disorders, high BMI, poor diet, high fasting plasma glucose level, and alcohol use disorders are increasing and warrant increased attention. These data can be used to inform national health priorities for research, clinical care, and policy.28:T1572,BACKGROUND: A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. FINDINGS: In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. INTERPRETATION: GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.29:T7a3,Importance: Rotavirus infection is the global leading cause of diarrhea-associated morbidity and mortality among children younger than 5 years. Objectives: To examine the extent of rotavirus infection among children younger than 5 years by country and the number of deaths averted because of the rotavirus vaccine. Design, Setting, and Participants: This report builds on findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016, a cross-sectional study that measured diarrheal diseases and their etiologic agents. Models were used to estimate burden in data-sparse locations. Exposure: Diarrhea due to rotavirus infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rotavirus-associated mortality and morbidity by country and year and averted deaths attributable to the rotavirus vaccine by country. Results: Rotavirus infection was responsible for an estimated 128 500 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 104 500-155 600) among children younger than 5 years throughout the world in 2016, with 104 733 deaths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (95% UI, 83 406-128 842). Rotavirus infection was responsible for more than 258 million episodes of diarrhea among children younger than 5 years in 2016 (95% UI, 193 million to 341 million), an incidence of 0.42 cases per child-year (95% UI, 0.30-0.53). Vaccine use is estimated to have averted more than 28 000 deaths (95% UI, 14 600-46 700) among children younger than 5 years, and expanded use of the rotavirus vaccine, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, could have prevented approximately 20% of all deaths attributable to diarrhea among children younger than 5 years. Conclusions and Relevance: Rotavirus-associated mortality has decreased markedly over time in part because of the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine. This study suggests that prioritizing vaccine introduction and interventions to reduce diarrhea-associated morbidity and mortality is necessary in the continued global reduction of rotavirus infection.2a:T9ad,BACKGROUND: The protozoan Cryptosporidium is a leading cause of diarrhoea morbidity and mortality in children younger than 5 years. However, the true global burden of Cryptosporidium infection in children younger than 5 years might have been underestimated in previous quantifications because it only took account of the acute effects of diarrhoea. We aimed to demonstrate whether there is a causal relation between Cryptosporidium and childhood growth and, if so, to quantify the associated additional burden. METHODS: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2016 was a systematic and scientific effort to quantify the morbidity and mortality associated with more than 300 causes of death and disability, including diarrhoea caused by Cryptosporidium infection. We supplemented estimates on the burden of Cryptosporidium in GBD 2016 with findings from a systematic review of published and unpublished cohort studies and a meta-analysis of the effect of childhood diarrhoea caused by Cryptosporidium infection on physical growth. FINDINGS: In 2016, Cryptosporidium infection was the fifth leading diarrhoeal aetiology in children younger than 5 years, and acute infection caused more than 48 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24 600-81 900) and more than 4·2 million disability-adjusted life-years lost (95% UI 2·2 million-7·2 million). We identified seven data sources from the scientific literature and six individual-level data sources describing the relation between Cryptosporidium and childhood growth. Each episode of diarrhoea caused by Cryptosporidium infection was associated with a decrease in height-for-age Z score (0·049, 95% CI 0·014-0·080), weight-for-age Z score (0·095, 0·055-0·134), and weight-for-height Z score (0·126, 0·057-0·194). We estimated that diarrhoea from Cryptosporidium infection caused an additional 7·85 million disability-adjusted life-years (95% UI 5·42 million-10·11 million) after we accounted for its effect on growth faltering-153% more than that estimated from acute effects alone. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that the substantial short-term burden of diarrhoea from Cryptosporidium infection on childhood growth and wellbeing is an underestimate of the true burden. Interventions designed to prevent and effectively treat infection in children younger than 5 years will have enormous public health and social development impacts. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.2b:T8d0,BACKGROUND: Numerous population-based studies have documented high prevalence of scabies in overcrowded settings, particularly among children and in tropical regions. We provide an estimate of the global burden of scabies using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015. METHODS: We identified scabies epidemiological data sources from an extensive literature search and hospital insurance data and analysed data sources with a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2·1, to yield prevalence estimates. We combined prevalence estimates with a disability weight, measuring disfigurement, itch, and pain caused by scabies, to produce years lived with disability (YLDs). With an assumed zero mortality from scabies, YLDs were equivalent to disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We estimated DALYs for 195 countries divided into 21 world regions, in both sexes and 20 age groups, between 1990 and 2015. FINDINGS: Scabies was responsible for 0·21% of DALYs from all conditions studied by GBD 2015 worldwide. The world regions of east Asia (age-standardised DALYs 136·32), southeast Asia (134·57), Oceania (120·34), tropical Latin America (99·94), and south Asia (69·41) had the greatest burden of DALYs from scabies. Mean percent change of DALY rate from 1990 to 2015 was less than 8% in all world regions, except North America, which had a 23·9% increase. The five individual countries with greatest scabies burden were Indonesia (age-standardised DALYs 153·86), China (138·25), Timor-Leste (136·67), Vanuatu (131·59), and Fiji (130·91). The largest standard deviations of age-standardised DALYs between the 20 age groups were observed in southeast Asia (60·1), Oceania (58·3), and east Asia (56·5), with the greatest DALY burdens in children, adolescents, and the elderly. INTERPRETATION: The burden of scabies is greater in tropical regions, especially in children, adolescents, and elderly people. As a worldwide epidemiological assessment, GBD 2015 provides broad and frequently updated measures of scabies burden in terms of skin effects. These global data might help guide research protocols and prioritisation efforts and focus scabies treatment and control measures. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.2c:T7b6,BACKGROUND: Azithromycin or doxycycline is recommended for nongonococcal urethritis (NGU); recent evidence suggests their efficacy has declined. We compared azithromycin and doxycycline in men with NGU, hypothesizing that azithromycin was more effective than doxycycline. METHODS: From January 2007 to July 2011, English-speaking males ≥16 years, attending a sexually transmitted diseases clinic in Seattle, Washington, with NGU (visible urethral discharge or ≥5 polymorphonuclear leukocytes per high-power field [PMNs/HPF]) were eligible for this double-blind, parallel-group superiority trial. Participants received active azithromycin (1 g) + placebo doxycycline or active doxycycline (100 mg twice daily for 7 days) + placebo azithromycin. Urine was tested for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Mycoplasma genitalium (MG), Ureaplasma urealyticum biovar 2 (UU-2), and Trichomonas vaginalis (TV) using nucleic acid amplification tests. Clinical cure (<5 PMNs/HPF with or without urethral symptoms and absence of discharge) and microbiologic cure (negative tests for CT, MG, and/or UU-2) were determined after 3 weeks. RESULTS: Of 606 men, 304 were randomized to azithromycin and 302 to doxycycline; CT, MG, TV, and UU-2 were detected in 24%, 13%, 2%, and 23%, respectively. In modified intent-to-treat analyses, 172 of 216 (80%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 74%-85%) receiving azithromycin and 157 of 206 (76%; 95% CI, 70%-82%) receiving doxycycline experienced clinical cure (P = .40). In pathogen-specific analyses, clinical cure did not differ by arm, nor did microbiologic cure differ for CT (86% vs 90%, P = .56), MG (40% vs 30%, P = .41), or UU-2 (75% vs 70%, P = .50). No unexpected adverse events occurred. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical and microbiologic cure rates for NGU were somewhat low and there was no significant difference between azithromycin and doxycycline. Mycoplasma genitalium treatment failure was extremely common. Clinical Trials Registration.NCT00358462.2d:Tb1b,BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea is a leading cause of death and illness globally among children younger than 5 years. Mortality and short-term morbidity cause substantial burden of disease but probably underestimate the true effect of diarrhoea on population health. This underestimation is because diarrhoeal diseases can negatively affect early childhood growth, probably through enteric dysfunction and impaired uptake of macronutrients and micronutrients. We attempt to quantify the long-term sequelae associated with childhood growth impairment due to diarrhoea. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study framework and leveraged existing estimates of diarrhoea incidence, childhood undernutrition, and infectious disease burden to estimate the effect of diarrhoeal diseases on physical growth, including weight and height, and subsequent disease among children younger than 5 years. The burden of diarrhoea was measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite metric of mortality and morbidity. We hypothesised that diarrhoea is negatively associated with three common markers of growth: weight-for-age, weight-for-height, and height-for-age Z-scores. On the basis of these undernutrition exposures, we applied a counterfactual approach to quantify the relative risk of infectious disease (subsequent diarrhoea, lower respiratory infection, and measles) and protein energy malnutrition morbidity and mortality per day of diarrhoea and quantified the burden of diarrhoeal disease due to these outcomes caused by undernutrition. FINDINGS: ). After addition of the DALYs due to the long-term sequelae as a consequence of undernutrition, the burden of diarrhoeal diseases increased by 39·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·0-46·6) and was responsible for 55 778 000 DALYs (95% UI 49 125 400-62 396 200) among children younger than 5 years in 2016. Among the 15 652 300 DALYs (95% UI 12 951 300-18 806 100) associated with undernutrition due to diarrhoeal episodes, more than 84·7% are due to increased risk of infectious disease, whereas the remaining 15·3% of long-term DALYs are due to increased prevalence of protein energy malnutrition. The burden of diarrhoea has decreased substantially since 1990, but progress has been greater in long-term (78·7% reduction [95% UI 69·3-85·5]) than in acute (70·4% reduction [95% UI 61·7-76·5]) DALYs. INTERPRETATION: Diarrhoea represents an even larger burden of disease than was estimated in the Global Burden of Disease Study. In order to adequately address the burden of its long-term sequelae, a renewed emphasis on controlling the risk of diarrhoea incidence may be required. This renewed effort can help further prevent the potential lifelong cost on child health, growth, and overall potential. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.2e:Td6c,BACKGROUND: Gastro-oesophageal reflux disease is a common chronic ailment that causes uncomfortable symptoms and increases the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. We aimed to report the burden of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. METHODS: We did a systematic review to identify measurements of the prevalence of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in geographically defined populations worldwide between 1990 and 2017. These estimates were analysed with DisMod-MR, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool that incorporates predictive covariates and adjustments for differences in study design in a geographical cascade of models. Fitted values for broader geographical units inform prior distributions for finer geographical units. Prevalence was estimated for 195 countries and territories. Reports of the frequency and severity of symptoms among individuals with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease were used to estimate the prevalence of cases with no, mild to moderate, or severe to very severe symptoms at a given time; these estimates were multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLD). FINDINGS: Data to estimate gastro-oesophageal reflux disease burden were scant, totalling 144 location-years (unique measurements from a year and location, regardless of whether a study reported them alongside measurements for other locations or years) of prevalence data. These came from six (86%) of seven GBD super-regions, 11 (52%) of 21 GBD regions, and 39 (20%) of 195 countries and territories. Mean estimates of age-standardised prevalence for all locations in 2017 ranged from 4408 cases per 100 000 population to 14 035 cases per 100 000 population. Age-standardised prevalence was highest (>11 000 cases per 100 000 population) in the USA, Italy, Greece, New Zealand, and several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe; it was lowest (<7000 cases per 100 000 population) in the high-income Asia Pacific, east Asia, Iceland, France, Denmark, and Switzerland. Global prevalence peaked at ages 75-79 years, at 18 820 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 13 770-24 000) cases per 100 000 population. Global age-standardised prevalence was stable between 1990 and 2017 (8791 [95% UI 7772-9834] cases per 100 000 population in 1990 and 8819 [7781-9863] cases per 100 000 population in 2017, percentage change 0·3% [-0·3 to 0·9]), but all-age prevalence increased by 18·1% (15·6-20·4) between 1990 and 2017, from 7859 (6905-8851) cases per 100 000 population in 1990 to 9283 (8189-10 400) cases per 100 000 population in 2017. YLDs increased by 67·1% (95% UI 63·5-70·3) between 1990 and 2017, from 3·60 million (1·93-6·12) in 1990 to 6·01 million (3·22-10·19) in 2017. INTERPRETATION: Gastro-oesophageal reflux disease is common worldwide, although less so in much of eastern Asia. The stability of our global age-standardised prevalence estimates over time suggests that the epidemiology of the disease has not changed, but the estimates of all-age prevalence and YLDs, which increased between 1990 and 2017, suggest that the burden of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease is nonetheless increasing as a result of ageing and population growth. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.2f:T7d9,BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is diagnosed by microscopic confirmation of the parasite in bone marrow, spleen or lymph node aspirates. These procedures are unsuitable for rapid diagnosis of VL in field settings. The development of rK39-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) revolutionized diagnosis of VL by offering high sensitivity and specificity in detecting disease in the Indian subcontinent; however, these tests have been less reliable in the African subcontinent (sensitivity range of 75-85%, specificity of 70-92%). We have addressed limitations of the rK39 with a new synthetic polyprotein, rK28, followed by development and evaluation of two new rK28-based RDT prototype platforms. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Evaluation of 62 VL-confirmed sera from Sudan provided sensitivities of 96.8% and 93.6% (95% CI = K28: 88.83-99.61%; K39: 84.30-98.21%) and specificities of 96.2% and 92.4% (95% CI = K28: 90.53-98.95%; K39: 85.54-96.65%) for rK28 and rK39, respectively. Of greater interest was the observation that individual VL sera with low rK39 reactivity often had much higher rK28 reactivity. This characteristic of the fusion protein was exploited in the development of rK28 rapid tests, which may prove to be crucial in detecting VL among patients with low rK39 antibody levels. Evaluation of two prototype lateral flow-based rK28 rapid tests on 53 VL patients in Sudan and 73 VL patients in Bangladesh provided promisingly high sensitivities (95.9% [95% CI = 88.46-99.1 in Sudan and 98.1% [95% CI = 89.93-99.95%] in Bangladesh) compared to the rK39 RDT (sensitivities of 86.3% [95% CI = 76.25-93.23%] in Sudan and 88.7% [95% CI = 76.97-95.73%] in Bangladesh). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study compares the diagnostic accuracy of rK39 and rK28 in detecting active VL cases and our findings indicate that rK28 polyprotein has great potential as a serodiagnostic tool. A new rK28-based RDT will prove to be a valuable asset in simplifying VL disease confirmation at the point-of-care.30:T8b9,INTRODUCTION: As non-communicable disease (NCD) burden rises worldwide, community-based programmes are a promising strategy to bridge gaps in NCD care. The HealthRise programme sought to improve hypertension and diabetes management for underserved communities in nine sites across Brazil, India, South Africa and the USA between 2016 and 2018. This study presents findings from the programme's endline evaluation. METHODS: The evaluation utilises a mixed-methods quasi-experimental design. Process indicators assess programme implementation; quantitative data examine patients' biometric measures and qualitative data characterise programme successes and challenges. Programme impact was assessed using the percentage of patients meeting blood pressure and A1c treatment targets and tracking changes in these measures over time. RESULTS: Almost 60 000 screenings, most of them in India, resulted in 1464 new hypertension and 295 new diabetes cases across sites. In Brazil, patients exhibited statistically significant reductions in blood pressure and A1c. In Shimla, India, and in South Africa, country with the shortest implementation period, there were no differences between patients served by facilities in HealthRise areas relative to comparison areas. Among participating patients with diabetes in Hennepin and Ramsey counties and hypertension patients in Hennepin County, the percentage of HealthRise patients meeting treatment targets at endline was significantly higher relative to comparison group patients. Qualitative analysis identified linking different providers, services, communities and information systems as positive HealthRise attributes. Gaps in health system capacities and sociodemographic factors, including poverty, low levels of health education and limited access to nutritious food, are remaining challenges. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from Brazil and the USA indicate that the HealthRise model has the potential to improve patient outcomes. Short implementation periods and strong emphasis on screening may have contributed to the lack of detectable differences in other sites. Community-based care cannot deliver its full potential if sociodemographic and health system barriers are not addressed in tandem.31:T727,OBJECTIVE: To identify factors associated with contraceptive use among women in need living in the poorest areas in five Mesoamerican countries: Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and State of Chiapas (Mexico). STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed baseline data of 7049 women of childbearing age (15-49 years old) collected for the Salud Mesoamérica Initiative. Data collection took place in the 20% poorest municipalities of each country (July, 2012-August, 2013). RESULTS: Women in the poorest areas were very poorly informed about family planning methods. Concern about side effects was the main reason for nonuse. Contraceptive use was lower among the extremely poor (<$1.25 USD PPP per day) [odds ratio (OR): 0.75; confidence interval (CI): 0.59-0.96], those living more than 30 min away from a health facility (OR 0.71, CI: 0.58-0.86), and those of indigenous ethnicity (OR 0.50, CI: 0.39-0.64). Women who were insured and visited a health facility also had higher odds of using contraceptives than insured women who did not visit a health facility (OR 1.64, CI: 1.13-2.36). CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed low use of contraceptives in poor areas in Mesoamerica. We found the urgent need to improve services for people of indigenous ethnicity, low education, extreme poverty, the uninsured, and adolescents. It is necessary to address missed opportunities and offer contraceptives to all women who visit health facilities. Governments should aim to increase the public's knowledge of long-acting reversible contraception and offer a wider range of methods to increase contraceptive use. IMPLICATIONS: We show that unmet need for contraception is higher among the poorest and describe factors associated with low use. Our results call for increased investments in programs and policies targeting the poor to decrease their unmet need.32:T5c8,Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.33:T85b,Indigenous women in Mesoamerica experience disproportionately high maternal mortality rates and are less likely to have institutional deliveries. Identifying correlates of institutional delivery, and satisfaction with institutional deliveries, may help improve facility utilization and health outcomes in this population. We used baseline surveys from the Salud Mesoamérica Initiative to analyze data from 10,895 indigenous and non-indigenous women in Guatemala and Mexico (Chiapas State) and indigenous women in Panama. We created multivariable Poisson regression models for indigenous (Guatemala, Mexico, Panama) and non-indigenous (Guatemala, Mexico) women to identify correlates of institutional delivery and satisfaction. Compared to their non-indigenous peers, indigenous women were substantially less likely to have an institutional delivery (15.2% vs. 41.5% in Guatemala (P<0.001), 29.1% vs. 73.9% in Mexico (P<0.001), and 70.3% among indigenous Panamanian women). Indigenous women who had at least one antenatal care visit were more than 90% more likely to have an institutional delivery (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) = 1.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.44-2.61), compared to those who had no visits. Indigenous women who were advised to give birth in a health facility (aRR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.18-1.81), primiparous (aRR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.24-1.68), informed that she should have a Caesarean section (aRR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.21-1.63), and had a secondary or higher level of education (aRR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.04-1.79) also had substantially higher likelihoods of institutional delivery. Satisfaction among indigenous women was associated with being able to be accompanied by a community health worker (aRR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.05-1.26) and facility staff speaking an indigenous language (aRR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02-1.19). Additional effort should be exerted to increase utilization of birthing facilities by indigenous and poor women in the region. Improving access to antenatal care and opportunities for higher-level education may increase institutional delivery rates, and providing culturally adapted services may improve satisfaction.34:T841,BACKGROUND: Antenatal care (ANC) is a means to identify high-risk pregnancies and educate women so that they might experience a healthier delivery and outcome. There is a lack of evidence about whether receipt of ANC is an effective strategy for keeping women in the system so they partake in other maternal and child interventions, particularly for poor women. The present analysis examines whether ANC uptake is associated with other maternal and child health behaviors in poor mothers in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Mexico (Chiapas). METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of women regarding their uptake of ANC for their most recent delivery in the last two years and their uptake of selected services and healthy behaviors along a continuity of maternal and child healthcare. We conducted logistic regressions on a sample of 4844 births, controlling for demographic, household, and maternal characteristics to understand the relationship between uptake of ANC and later participation in the continuum of care. RESULTS: Uptake of four ANC visits varied by country from 17.0% uptake in Guatemala to 81.4% in Nicaragua. In all countries but Nicaragua, ANC was significantly associated with in-facility delivery (IFD) (Guatemala odds ratio [OR] = 5.28 [95% confidence interval [CI] 3.62-7.69]; Mexico OR = 5.00 [95% CI: 3.41-7.32]; Honduras OR = 2.60 [95% CI: 1.42-4.78]) and postnatal care (Guatemala OR = 4.82 [95% CI: 3.21-7.23]; Mexico OR = 4.02 [95% CI: 2.77-5.82]; Honduras OR = 2.14 [95% CI: 1.26-3.64]), but did not appear to have any positive relationship with exclusive breastfeeding habits or family planning methods, which may be more strongly determined by cultural influences. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that uptake of the WHO-recommended four ANC visits has limited effectiveness on uptake of services in some poor populations in Mesoamérica. Our study highlights the need for continued and varied efforts in these populations to increase both the uptake and the effectiveness of ANC in encouraging positive and lasting effects on women's uptake of health care services.35:T785,BACKGROUND: Children under five bear the largest cholera burden. We therefore sought to identify modifiable risk factors among Bangladeshi children. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used multivariate Poisson regression to assess risk factors for severe cholera among diarrheal patients presenting at hospitals in Matlab (rural) and Dhaka (urban), Bangladesh. Risk increased with age. Compared to those under one, rural and urban four-year-olds had adjusted risk ratios (aRR) of 4.17 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.43-7.15) and 6.32 (95% CI: 4.63-8.63), respectively. Breastfeeding halved the risk in both rural (aRR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.35-0.67) and urban (aRR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.41-0.62) settings. Rural children's risk decreased with maternal education (P-trend: <0.001) and increased among those with a family member with diarrhea in the past week (aRR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.22-2.14) and those with prior vitamin A supplementation (aRR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.12-2.43). Urban children whose mothers daily (aRR = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.21-0.79) or occasionally (aRR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.36-0.84) read a newspaper experienced reduced risk. Urban children from households with incomes between 34-84 USD/month had a 30% increased risk compared to those from households with incomes >84 USD/month. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Increasing age, lower socioeconomic status, and lack of breastfeeding are key correlates of increased risk for cholera hospitalization among those under five in rural and urban Bangladesh. In addition, having a family member with diarrhea in the past week was associated with increased risk among rural children. Continued attention should be directed to the promotion of breastfeeding. Further research is needed to elucidate the relationship between maternal education and cholera risk. Renewed research regarding the use of chemoprophylaxis among family members of cholera cases may be warranted in rural endemic settings.36:T702,OBJECTIVE: Doxycycline, one of two recommended therapies for non-gonococcal urethritis (NGU), consists of a 7-day course of therapy (100 mg BID). Since suboptimal adherence may contribute to poor treatment outcomes, we examined the association between self-reported imperfect adherence to doxycycline and clinical and microbiologic failure among men with NGU. METHODS: Men aged ≥16 years with NGU attending a Seattle, WA, sexually transmitted diseases clinic were enrolled in a double-blind, parallel-group superiority trial from January 2007 to July 2011. Men were randomised to active doxycycline/placebo azithromycin or placebo doxycycline/active azithromycin. Imperfect adherence was defined as missing ≥1 dose in 7 days. Urine was tested for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Mycoplasma genitalium (MG), and Ureaplasma urealyticum-biovar 2 (UU-2) using nucleic acid amplification tests. Clinical failure (symptoms and ≥5 PMNs/HPF or discharge) and microbiologic failure (positive tests for CT, MG, and/or UU-2) were determined after 3 weeks. RESULTS: 184 men with NGU were randomised to active doxycycline and provided data on adherence. Baseline prevalence of CT, MG and UU-2 was 26%, 13% and 27%, respectively. 28% of men reported imperfect adherence, and this was associated with microbiologic failure among men with CT (aRR=9.33; 95% CI 1.00 to 89.2) and UU-2 (aRR=3.08; 95% CI 1.31 to 7.26) but not MG. Imperfect adherence was not significantly associated with clinical failure overall or for any specific pathogens, but it was more common among imperfectly adherent men with CT (aRR=2.63; 0.93-7.41, p=0.07). CONCLUSIONS: Adherence may be important for microbiologic cure of select pathogens. Factors other than adherence should be considered for CT-negative men with persistent NGU.37:T6e6,Although it is understood that low-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes are associated with genital warts, there have been very few published studies reporting the genotype-specific prevalence of HPV among Chinese population. The aim of the study was to assess the prevalence of HPV genotypes in genital warts across China, and thus to evaluate the potential benefit of a quadrivalent HPV vaccine in this population. The tissue samples of a total of 1,005 genital warts cases were collected from seven geographical regions of China. HPV genotypes were analyzed using the general primer PCR and sequence-based typing method. Prevalence differences between sexes, geographical regions and age groups were assessed. The overall prevalence of HPV DNA in genital warts patients was 88.7% (891/1,005). Low-risk genotypes predominated, with a prevalence of 78.1% (785/1,005). The most prevalent genotypes were HPV-6 (41.3%), HPV-11 (37.6%) and HPV-16 (10.4%). Among HPV positive patients, single infections were more frequent (866/891, 97.2%) than co-infections (25/891, 2.8%). Both the overall prevalence of HPV DNA and that of HPV-6/-11/-16 (positive for any of the three types) decreased with age (P-trend = 0.010 and P-trend = 0.025, respectively). The prevalence of HPV-6/-11 (positive for either HPV type) and HPV-16 varied by geographic region (P = 0.003 and P ≤ 0.001, respectively). The prevalence of HPV-16 in female patients between urban and rural areas showed a marginally significant difference (P = 0.05). In sum, the results provide strong evidence that, in China, the most prevalent HPV genotypes in genital warts are HPV-6, HPV-11 and HPV-16. This indicates that a quadrivalent HPV vaccine may decrease the incidence of genital warts in the future.38:T919,BACKGROUND: The HealthRise initiative seeks to implement and evaluate innovative community-based strategies for diabetes, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia along the entire continuum of care (CoC)-from awareness and diagnosis, through treatment and control. In this study, we present baseline findings from HealthRise South Africa, identifying gaps in the CoC, as well as key barriers to care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs). METHODS: This mixed-methods needs assessment utilized national household data, health facility surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews in Umgungundlovu and Pixley ka Seme districts. Risk factor and disease prevalence were estimated from the South Africa National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Health facility surveys were conducted at 86 facilities, focusing on essential intervention, medications and standard treatment guidelines. Quantitative results are presented descriptively, and qualitative data was analyzed using a framework approach. RESULTS: 46.8% of the population in Umgungundlovu and 51.0% in Pixley ka Seme were hypertensive. Diabetes was present in 11.0% and 9.7% of the population in Umgungundlovu and Pixley ka Seme. Hypercholesterolemia was more common in Pixley ka Seme (17.3% vs. 11.1%). Women and those of Indian descent were more likely to have diabetes. More than half of the population was found to be overweight, and binge drinking, inactivity and smoking were all common. More than half of patients with hypertension were unaware of their disease status (51.6% in Pixley ka Seme and 51.3% in Umgungundlovu), while the largest gap in the diabetes CoC occurred between initiation of treatment and achieving disease control. Demand-side barriers included lack of transportation, concerns about confidentiality, perceived discrimination and long wait times. Supply-side barriers included limited availability of testing equipment, inadequate staffing, and pharmaceutical stock outs. CONCLUSION: In this baseline assessment of two South African health districts we found high rates of undiagnosed hypercholesterolemia and hypertension, and poor control of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes. The HealthRise Initiative will need to address key supply- and demand-side barriers in an effort to improve important NCD outcomes.39:T621,OBJECTIVE: To conduct a landscape assessment of public knowledge of cardiovascular disease risk factors and acute myocardial infarction symptoms, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and automated external defibrillator (AED) awareness and training in three underserved communities in Brazil. METHODS: A cross-sectional, population-based survey of non-institutionalised adults age 30 or greater was conducted in three municipalities in Eastern Brazil. Data were analysed as survey-weighted percentages of the sampled populations. RESULTS: 3035 surveys were completed. Overall, one-third of respondents was unable to identify at least one cardiovascular disease risk factor and 25% unable to identify at least one myocardial infarction symptom. A minority of respondents had received training in CPR or were able to identify an AED. Low levels of education and low socioeconomic status were consistent predictors of lower knowledge levels of cardiovascular disease risk factors, acute coronary syndrome symptoms and CPR and AED use. CONCLUSIONS: In three municipalities in Eastern Brazil, overall public knowledge of cardiovascular disease risk factors and symptoms, as well as knowledge of appropriate CPR and AED use was low. Our findings indicate the need for interventions to improve public knowledge and response to acute cardiovascular events in Brazil as a first step towards improving health outcomes in this population. Significant heterogeneity in knowledge seen across sites and socioeconomic strata indicates a need to appropriately target such interventions.3a:T85c,BACKGROUND: The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) is an important metric of child health and survival. Country-level estimates of U5MR are readily available, but efforts to estimate U5MR subnationally have been limited, in part, due to spatial misalignment of available data sources (e.g., use of different administrative levels, or as a result of historical boundary changes). METHODS: We analyzed all available complete and summary birth history data in surveys and censuses in six countries (Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia) at the finest geographic level available in each data source. We then developed small area estimation models capable of incorporating spatially misaligned data. These small area estimation models were applied to the birth history data in order to estimate trends in U5MR from 1980 to 2015 at the second administrative level in Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia and at the third administrative level in Bangladesh. RESULTS: We found substantial variation in U5MR in all six countries: there was more than a two-fold difference in U5MR between the area with the highest rate and the area with the lowest rate in every country. All areas in all countries experienced declines in U5MR between 1980 and 2015, but the degree varied both within and between countries. In Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, and Zambia we found areas with U5MRs in 2015 that were higher than in other parts of the same country in 1980. Comparing subnational U5MR to country-level targets for the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), we find that 12.8% of areas in Bangladesh did not meet the country-level target, although the country as whole did. A minority of areas in Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia met the country-level MDG targets while these countries as a whole did not. CONCLUSIONS: Subnational estimates of U5MR reveal significant within-country variation. These estimates could be used for identifying high-need areas and positive deviants, tracking trends in geographic inequalities, and evaluating progress towards international development targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals.3b:T543,BACKGROUND: Cholera and shigellosis are endemic on the Indian subcontinent. Our objective was to identify cholera-specific risk factors distinct from shigellosis risk factors. METHODS: We conducted a case-case study among hospitalized diarrheal patients, comparing those with cholera and shigellosis in International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) hospitals in Matlab (rural) and Dhaka (urban) between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2008. RESULTS: Multivariable Poisson regression models revealed that having more than nine years of education, compared to no education, was associated with a 39% (adjusted Risk Ratio [aRR] = 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.40-0.93) decreased risk for cholera hospitalization in Matlab and a 16% (aRR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.75-0.94) decreased risk in Dhaka. Having a family member with diarrhea in the past seven days increased cholera hospitalization risk by 17% (aRR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.09-1.26) in Matlab. CONCLUSIONS: Further studies are needed to elucidate the pathway through which education impacts cholera risk in order to create targeted interventions in cholera-endemic areas. Interventions seeking to reduce transmission and facilitate hygienic practices among family members of index cases with diarrhea should be considered, especially in rural cholera endemic settings.3c:T5c8,Public Health 3.0 approaches are critical for monitoring disparities in economic, social, and overall health impacts following the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated policy changes to slow community spread. Timely, cross-sector data as identified using this approach help decisionmakers identify changes, track racial disparities, and address unintended consequences during a pandemic. We applied a monitoring and evaluation framework that combined policy changes with timely, relevant cross-sector data and community review. Indicators covered unemployment, basic needs, family violence, education, childcare, access to health care, and mental, physical, and behavioral health. In response to increasing COVID-19 cases, nonpharmaceutical intervention strategies were implemented in March 2020 in King County, Washington. By December 2020, 554 000 unemployment claims were filed. Social service calls increased 100%, behavioral health crisis calls increased 25%, and domestic violence calls increased 25%, with disproportionate impact on communities of color. This framework can be replicated by local jurisdictions to inform and address racial inequities in ongoing COVID-19 mitigation and recovery. Cross-sector collaboration between public health and sectors addressing the social determinants of health are an essential first step to have an impact on long-standing racial inequities. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(S3):S215–S223. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306422 )3d:T613,BACKGROUND: Results-based aid (RBA) is increasingly used to incentivize action in health. In Mesoamerica, the region consisting of southern Mexico and Central America, the RBA project known as the Salud Mesoamérica Initiative (SMI) was designed to target disparities in maternal and child health, focusing on the poorest 20% of the population across the region. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were first collected in 365 intervention health facilities to establish a baseline of indicators. For the first follow-up measure, 18 to 24 months later, 368 facilities were evaluated in these same areas. At both stages, we measured a near-identical set of supply-side performance indicators in line with country-specific priorities in maternal and child health. All countries showed progress in performance indicators, although with different levels. El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama reached their 18-month targets, while the State of Chiapas in Mexico, Guatemala, and Belize did not. A second follow-up measurement in Chiapas and Guatemala showed continued progress, as they achieved previously missed targets nine to 12 months later, after implementing a performance improvement plan. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show an initial success in the supply-side indicators of SMI. Our data suggest that the RBA approach can be a motivator to improve availability of drugs and services in poor areas. Moreover, our innovative monitoring and evaluation framework will allow health officials with limited resources to identify and target areas of greatest need.3e:T5cc,BACKGROUND: Studies of human polyomavirus (HPyV) infection and lung cancer are limited and those regarding the association of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and lung cancer have produced inconsistent results. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study to assess the association between incident lung cancer of various histologies and evidence of prior infection with HPyVs and HPVs. We selected serum from 183 cases and 217 frequency matched controls from the Yunnan Tin Miner's Cohort study, which was designed to identify biomarkers for early detection of lung cancer. Using multiplex liquid bead microarray (LBMA) antibody assays, we tested for antibodies to the VP1 structural protein and small T antigen (ST-Ag) of Merkel cell, KI, and WU HPyVs. We also tested for antibodies against HPV L1 structural proteins (high-risk types 16, 18, 31, 33, 52, and 58 and low-risk types 6 and 11) and E6 and E7 oncoproteins (high risk types 16 and 18). Measures of antibody reactivity were log transformed and analyzed using logistic regression. RESULTS: We found no association between KIV, WUV, and MCV antibody levels and incident lung cancer (P-corrected for multiple comparisons >0.10 for all trend tests). We also found no association with HPV-16, 18, 31, 33, 52, and 58 seropositivity (P-corrected for multiple comparisons >0.05 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Future studies of infectious etiologies of lung cancer should look beyond HPyVs and HPVs as candidate infectious agents.3f:T5a7,Care practices and risk factors for diarrhea among impoverished communities across Mesoamerica are unknown. Using Salud Mesoamérica Initiative baseline data, collected 2011-2013, we assessed the prevalence of diarrhea, adherence to evidence-based treatment guidelines, and potential diarrhea correlates in poor and indigenous communities across Mesoamerica. This study surveyed 14,500 children under 5 years of age in poor areas of El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico (Chiapas State), Nicaragua, and Panama. We compared diarrhea prevalence and treatment modalities using χ(2) tests and used multivariable Poisson regression models to calculate adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for potential correlates of diarrhea. The 2-week point prevalence of diarrhea was 13% overall, with significant differences between countries (P < 0.05). Approximately one-third of diarrheal children were given oral rehydration solution and less than 3% were given zinc. Approximately 18% were given much less to drink than usual or nothing to drink at all. Antimotility medication was given to 17% of diarrheal children, while antibiotics were inappropriately given to 36%. In a multivariable regression model, compared with children 0-5 months, those 6-23 months had a 49% increased risk for diarrhea (aRR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.15, 1.95). Our results call for programs to examine and remedy low adherence to evidence-based treatment guidelines.40:T7da,Neonatal sepsis is a leading cause of mortality among children under-5 in Latin America. The Salud Mesoamérica Initiative (SMI), a multicountry results-based aid programme, was designed to improve maternal, newborn and child health in impoverished communities in Mesoamérica. This study examines the delivery of timely and appropriate antibiotics for neonatal sepsis among facilities participating in the SMI project. A multifaceted health facility survey was implemented at SMI inception and approximately 18 months later as a follow-up. A random sample of medical records from neonates diagnosed with sepsis was reviewed, and data regarding antibiotic administration were extracted. In this paper, we present the percentage of patients who received timely (within 2 hours) and appropriate antibiotics. Multilevel logistic regression was used to assess for potential facility-level determinants of timely and appropriate antibiotic treatment. Among 821 neonates diagnosed with sepsis in 63 facilities, 61.8% received an appropriate antibiotic regimen, most commonly ampicillin plus an aminoglycoside. Within 2 hours of presentation, 32.3% received any antibiotic and only 26.6% received an appropriate regimen within that time. Antibiotic availability improved over the course of the SMI project, increasing from 27.5% at baseline to 64.0% at follow-up, and it was highly correlated with timely and appropriate antibiotic administration (adjusted OR=5.36, 95% CI 2.85 to 10.08). However, we also found a decline in the percentage of neonates documented to have received appropriate antibiotics (74.4% vs 51.1%). Our study demonstrated early success of the SMI project through improvements in the availability of appropriate antibiotic regimens for neonatal sepsis. At the same time, overall rates of timely and appropriate antibiotic administration remain low, and the next phase of the initiative will need to address other barriers to the provision of life-saving antibiotic treatment for neonatal sepsis.41:T7a1,Professional skilled care has shown to be one of the most promising strategies to reduce maternal mortality, and in-facility deliveries are a cost-effective way to ensure safe births. Countries in Mesoamerica have emphasized in-facility delivery care by professionally skilled attendants, but access to good-quality delivery care is still lacking for many women. We examined the characteristics of women who had a delivery in a health facility and determinants of the decision to bypass a closer facility and travel to a distant one. We used baseline information from the Salud Mesoamerica Initiative (SMI). Data were collected from a large household and facilities sample in the poorest quintile of the population in Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua. The analysis included 1592 deliveries. After controlling for characteristics of women and health facilities, being primiparous (RR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.10, 1.21), being literate (RR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.04, 1.48), having antenatal care (RR = 1.68, 95% CI 1.24, 2.27), being informed of the need for having a C-section (RR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.02, 1.11) and travel time to the closest facility totaling 1-2 h vs under 30 min (RR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.77, 0.99) were associated with in-health facility deliveries. In Guatemala, increased availability of medications and equipment at a distant facility was strongly associated with bypassing the closest facility in favor of a distant one for delivery (RR = 2.10, 95% CI 1.08, 4.07). Our study showed a strong correlation between well-equipped facilities and delivery attendance in poor areas of Mesoamerica. Indeed, women were more likely to travel to more distant facilities if the facilities were of higher level, which scored higher on our capacity score. Our findings call for improving the capacity of health facilities, quality of care and addressing cultural and accessibility barriers to increase institutional delivery among the poor population in Mesoamerica.42:T1386,BACKGROUND: Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. METHODS: We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. FINDINGS: The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations43:T763,Welcome to Annals of Global Health,Annals of Global Health is a peer-reviewed, fully open access, online journal dedicated to publishing high quality articles dedicated to all aspects of global health. The journal's mission is to advance global health, promote research, and foster the prevention and treatment of disease worldwide. Its goals are to improve the health and well-being of all people, advance health equity, and promote wise stewardship of the earth's environment. The latest journal impact factor is 3.64.Annals of Global Health is supported by the Program for Global Public Health and the Common Good at Boston College. It was founded in 1934 by the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai as the Mount Sinai Journal of Medicine. It is a partner journal of the Consortium of Universities for Global Health. Authors of articles accepted for publication in Annals of Global Health will be asked to pay an Article Publication Charge (APC) to cover publication costs. This charge can normally be sourced from your funder or institution. We are committed to supporting authors from all countries to publish their work in Annals of Global Health regardless of national income level, and to achieve this goal, we waive the Article Publication Charge for manuscripts where all authors are from low-income or lower-middle-income countries (as defined by the World Bank). From time to time, Annals of Global Health publishes Special Collections, a series of articles organized around a common theme in global health. Recent Special Collections have included “Strengthening Women’s Leadership in Global Health”, “Decolonizing Global Health Education”, and “Capacity Building for Global Health Leadership Training”. Global health workers interested in developing a Special Collection are strongly encouraged to contact the Managing Editor in advance to discuss the project.44:T650,BACKGROUND: Community-based health interventions are increasingly viewed as models of care that can bridge healthcare gaps experienced by underserved communities in the United States (US). With this study, we sought to assess the impact of such interventions, as implemented through the US HealthRise program, on hypertension and diabetes among underserved communities in Hennepin, Ramsey, and Rice Counties, Minnesota. METHODS AND FINDINGS: HealthRise patient data from June 2016 to October 2018 were assessed relative to comparison patients in a difference-in-difference analysis, quantifying program impact on reducing systolic blood pressure (SBP) and hemoglobin A1c, as well as meeting clinical targets (< 140 mmHg for hypertension, < 8% Al1c for diabetes), beyond routine care. For hypertension, HealthRise participation was associated with SBP reductions in Rice (6.9 mmHg [95% confidence interval: 0.9-12.9]) and higher clinical target achievement in Hennepin (27.3 percentage-points [9.8-44.9]) and Rice (17.1 percentage-points [0.9 to 33.3]). For diabetes, HealthRise was associated with A1c decreases in Ramsey (1.3 [0.4-2.2]). Qualitative data showed the value of home visits alongside clinic-based services; however, challenges remained, including community health worker retention and program sustainability. CONCLUSIONS: HealthRise participation had positive effects on improving hypertension and diabetes outcomes at some sites. While community-based health programs can help bridge healthcare gaps, they alone cannot fully address structural inequalities experienced by many underserved communities.45:T408,AIM: To examine risk factors for birth injury in a subsequent vaginal delivery among women with a prior delivery complicated by shoulder dystocia. METHODS: Population-based retrospective cohort study, Washington State (1987-2007). Logistic regression was used to assess risk factors associated with subsequent birth injury. RESULTS: Of 9232 women who met inclusion criteria, 223 (2.4%) had a subsequent vaginal delivery with birth injury. Birth injury in an index delivery, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.7-4.1] and factors in subsequent delivery: birth weight ≥4000 g, aOR 4.4 (95% CI: 3.0-6.3), gestational diabetes, aOR 1.9 (95% CI: 1.2-3.2), Hispanic ethnicity aOR 1.9 (95% CI: 1.2-2.9), and maternal obesity, aOR 1.8 (95% CI: 1.3-2.6) were associated with birth injury. CONCLUSION: Among women with prior delivery complicated by shoulder dystocia, the risk factors identified in this study should be carefully considered prior to deciding upon route of delivery - cesarean vs. vaginal delivery.46:T88e,BACKGROUND: The Salud Mesoamérica Initiative (SMI) is a public-private collaboration aimed to improve maternal and child health conditions in the poorest populations of Mesoamerica through a results-based aid mechanism. We assess the impact of SMI on the staffing and availability of equipment and supplies for delivery care, the proportion of institutional deliveries, and the proportion of women who choose a facility other than the one closest to their locality of residence for delivery. METHODS: We used a quasi-experimental design, including baseline and follow-up measurements between 2013 and 2018 in intervention and comparison areas of Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Honduras. We collected information on 8754 births linked to the health facility closest to the mother's locality of residence and the facility where the delivery took place (if attended in a health facility). We fit difference-in-difference models, adjusting for women's characteristics (age, parity, education), household characteristics, exposure to health promotion interventions, health facility level, and country. RESULTS: Equipment, inputs, and staffing of facilities improved after the Initiative in both intervention and comparison areas. After adjustment for covariates, institutional delivery increased between baseline and follow-up by 3.1 percentage points (β = 0.031, 95% CI -0.03, 0.09) more in intervention areas than in comparison areas. The proportion of women in intervention areas who chose a facility other than their closest one to attend the delivery decreased between baseline and follow-up by 13 percentage points (β = - 0.130, 95% CI -0.23, - 0.03) more than in the comparison group. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that women in intervention areas of SMI are more likely to go to their closest facility to attend delivery after the Initiative has improved facilities' capacity, suggesting that results-based aid initiatives targeting poor populations, like SMI, can increase the use of facilities closest to the place of residence for delivery care services. This should be considered in the design of interventions after the COVID-19 pandemic may have changed health and social conditions.47:T653,Background Community-based health interventions are increasingly viewed as models of care that can bridge healthcare gaps experienced by underserved communities in the United States (US). With this study, we sought to assess the impact of such interventions, as implemented through the US HealthRise program, on hypertension and diabetes among underserved communities in Hennepin, Ramsey, and Rice Counties, Minnesota. Methods and findings HealthRise patient data from June 2016 to October 2018 were assessed relative to comparison patients in a difference-in-difference analysis, quantifying program impact on reducing systolic blood pressure (SBP) and hemoglobin A1c, as well as meeting clinical targets (< 140 mmHg for hypertension, < 8% Al1c for diabetes), beyond routine care. For hypertension, HealthRise participation was associated with SBP reductions in Rice (6.9 mmHg [95% confidence interval: 0.9–12.9]) and higher clinical target achievement in Hennepin (27.3 percentage-points [9.8–44.9]) and Rice (17.1 percentage-points [0.9 to 33.3]). For diabetes, HealthRise was associated with A1c decreases in Ramsey (1.3 [0.4–2.2]). Qualitative data showed the value of home visits alongside clinic-based services; however, challenges remained, including community health worker retention and program sustainability. Conclusions HealthRise participation had positive effects on improving hypertension and diabetes outcomes at some sites. While community-based health programs can help bridge healthcare gaps, they alone cannot fully address structural inequalities experienced by many underserved communities.48:T5d5,Abstract Background Studies of human polyomavirus (HPyV) infection and lung cancer are limited and those regarding the association of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and lung cancer have produced inconsistent results. Methods We conducted a nested case–control study to assess the association between incident lung cancer of various histologies and evidence of prior infection with HPyVs and HPVs. We selected serum from 183 cases and 217 frequency matched controls from the Yunnan Tin Miner’s Cohort study, which was designed to identify biomarkers for early detection of lung cancer. Using multiplex liquid bead microarray (LBMA) antibody assays, we tested for antibodies to the VP1 structural protein and small T antigen (ST-Ag) of Merkel cell, KI, and WU HPyVs. We also tested for antibodies against HPV L1 structural proteins (high-risk types 16, 18, 31, 33, 52, and 58 and low-risk types 6 and 11) and E6 and E7 oncoproteins (high risk types 16 and 18). Measures of antibody reactivity were log transformed and analyzed using logistic regression. Results We found no association between KIV, WUV, and MCV antibody levels and incident lung cancer (P-corrected for multiple comparisons >0.10 for all trend tests). We also found no association with HPV-16, 18, 31, 33, 52, and 58 seropositivity (P-corrected for multiple comparisons >0.05 for all). 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(","Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine (A Afshin MD","Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (K S Ikuta MD), University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA","Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98121, USA","Swedish Family Medicine, First Hill, Seattle, WA, USA ("]},{"name":"Marco Vacante","id":"openalex:A5090310380","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6815-5012","affiliation":"University of Washington","institutionId":"I201448701","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/00cvxb145","affiliations":["Affiliations Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (","Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine (A Afshin MD","Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (K S Ikuta MD), University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA","Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98121, USA","Swedish Family Medicine, First Hill, Seattle, WA, USA ("]},{"name":"Parviz 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Johanns","id":"openalex:A5037029957","affiliation":"University of Washington","institutionId":"I201448701","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/00cvxb145","affiliations":["Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA","Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America"]},{"name":"Charlie Mandile","id":"openalex:A5025076566","affiliation":"HealthFinders Collaborative, Northfield, Minnesota, USA","affiliations":["HealthFinders Collaborative, Northfield, Minnesota, USA","HealthFinders Collaborative, Northfield, Minnesota, United States of America"]},{"name":"Susan Marshall","id":"openalex:A5110723612","affiliation":"Ministere de l'Education Nationale","institutionId":"I4210141076","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/04xp49e10","affiliations":["International School of Djibouti – Ministere de l’Education Nationale, Djibouti City, Djibouti","International School of Djibouti–Ministere de l'Education Nationale, Djibouti City, Djibouti"]},{"name":"Claire R. 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Smith","id":"openalex:A5057867407","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1457-7735"},{"name":"Danny V. Colombara","id":"openalex:A5058309530","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5237-1300"},{"name":"Jufang Shi","id":"openalex:A5089919359","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5283-9762"}],"venue":"Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)","venueId":"S4306401075","publisher":"University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill","year":2020,"publishedDate":"2020-11-03","type":"article","citationCount":4,"referenceCount":0,"isOpenAccess":true,"sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17615/tqpe-5s48","oaUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17615/tqpe-5s48","pdfUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17615/tqpe-5s48","topics":[{"id":"T10146","name":"Cervical Cancer and HPV Research","score":1,"subfieldId":"2713","subfield":"Epidemiology","fieldId":"27","field":"Medicine"},{"id":"T10428","name":"Reproductive tract infections research","score":0,"subfieldId":"2404","subfield":"Microbiology","fieldId":"24","field":"Immunology and Microbiology"},{"id":"T13544","name":"Women's cancer prevention and management","score":0,"subfieldId":"2739","subfield":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health","fieldId":"27","field":"Medicine"}],"sources":["openalex"],"id":"openalex:W4300904910"},{"ids":{"openalex":"W2147074824","doi":"10.1515/jpm.2011.074","pmid":"21812753"},"title":"Birth injury in a subsequent vaginal delivery among women with a history of shoulder dystocia","abstract":"$45","authors":[{"name":"Danny V. Colombara","id":"openalex:A5058309530","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5237-1300","affiliation":"University of Washington","institutionId":"I201448701","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/00cvxb145","affiliations":["Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, School of Public Health, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. dvc2@uw.edu","Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington School of Public Health, Seattle, WA 98195, USA"],"corresponding":true},{"name":"Jason D. Soh","id":"openalex:A5060349972","affiliation":"University of Washington","institutionId":"I201448701","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/00cvxb145","affiliations":["Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, USA","University of Washington"]},{"name":"Luis A. 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Assessment, Policy Development, & Evaluation Unit, Seattle, USA"]},{"name":"Alexandra M Schaefer","id":"openalex:A5086032104","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3886-1522","affiliation":"University of Washington","institutionId":"I201448701","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/00cvxb145","affiliations":["Global Center for Integrated Health of Women, Adolescents, and Children, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA","Global Center for Integrated Health of Women, Adolescents, and Children, University of Washington, Seattle, USA"]},{"name":"Benito Salvatierra","id":"openalex:A5074779086","affiliation":"El Colegio de la Frontera Sur","institutionId":"I4210165284","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/05bpb0y22","affiliations":["Departamento de Salud, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, San Cristóbal de las Casas, Chiapas, Mexico","Departamento de Salud, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, San Cristóbal de las Casas, Mexico"]},{"name":"Julio César Mateus","id":"openalex:A5101819408","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7760-7423","affiliation":"Universidad del Valle","institutionId":"I91732220","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/00jb9vg53","affiliations":["Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia"]},{"name":"Isabel Cristina Casas","id":"openalex:A5074399640","affiliation":"Universidad del Valle","institutionId":"I91732220","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/00jb9vg53","affiliations":["Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia"]},{"name":"Giovanni Flores","id":"openalex:A5047343140","affiliation":"UNIMER, San Salvador, El Salvador","affiliations":["UNIMER, San Salvador, El Salvador"]},{"name":"Emma Iriarte","id":"openalex:A5087237599","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0007-1163-7217","affiliation":"Inter-American Development Bank","institutionId":"I184564680","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/02gjn4306","affiliations":["Salud Mesoamerica Initiative, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC, USA","Salud Mesoamerica Initiative, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, USA"]},{"name":"Ali H. Mokdad","id":"openalex:A5083535850","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4994-3339","affiliation":"University of Washington","institutionId":"I201448701","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/00cvxb145","affiliations":["Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA","Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, USA"]}],"venue":"BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth","venueId":"S123732490","publisher":"BioMed Central","publisherId":"P4310320256","year":2022,"publishedDate":"2022-01-03","type":"article","citationCount":3,"referenceCount":30,"isOpenAccess":true,"sourceUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12884-021-04279-2","oaUrl":"https://bmcpregnancychildbirth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12884-021-04279-2","pdfUrl":"https://bmcpregnancychildbirth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12884-021-04279-2","topics":[{"id":"T10209","name":"Global Maternal and Child Health","score":0.9945999979972839,"subfieldId":"2735","subfield":"Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health","fieldId":"27","field":"Medicine"},{"id":"T10600","name":"Reproductive Health and Contraception","score":0.000699999975040555,"subfieldId":"2739","subfield":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health","fieldId":"27","field":"Medicine"},{"id":"T12741","name":"Maternal and Neonatal Healthcare","score":0.0006000000284984708,"subfieldId":"3600","subfield":"General Health Professions","fieldId":"36","field":"Health Professions"}],"sources":["openalex"],"id":"openalex:W4206685783"},{"ids":{"openalex":"W4391024403","doi":"10.1080/10511482.2023.2299247"},"title":"The Relationship Between Exits From Federally Subsidized Housing and Wages, King County, WA","abstract":"Federally subsidized housing programs aim for economic self-sufficiency. We modeled housing exit type’s relationship with wage income using public housing authority exit data and Washington State wage data. Our cohort included 1,974 exits. Positive exits had higher mean wages ($8,392 vs. $6,643 and $6,253) and working hours (432 vs. 373 and 355) compared to neutral and negative exits, respectively. Households with positive exits were more likely to earn a living wage (33.5%) than those with neutral (16.9%) or negative (15.1%) exits. According to our model, positive exits earned an additional $1,593 (95% confidence interval: $1,031, $2,156) per quarter compared to negative exits. Wages among positive exits were substantially higher than those among neutral exits for four quarters before and after exit; wages among neutral exits were slightly higher than those for negative exits. These methods can assess the impact of programs targeting economic self-sufficiency among housing support recipients.","authors":[{"name":"Danny V. Colombara","id":"openalex:A5058309530","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5237-1300","affiliation":"Public Health – Seattle & King County","institutionId":"I135288348","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/054652k97","affiliations":["Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA","Public Health – Seattle &","King County, Seattle, WA, USA"],"corresponding":true},{"name":"Emilee L. Quinn","id":"openalex:A5016400744","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2685-0789","affiliation":"King County Housing Authority, Tukwila, WA, USA","affiliations":["King County Housing Authority, Tukwila, WA, USA"]},{"name":"Annie Pennucci","id":"openalex:A5007039332","affiliation":"King County Housing Authority, Tukwila, WA, USA","affiliations":["King County Housing Authority, Tukwila, WA, USA"]},{"name":"Andy Chan","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3380-4184","affiliation":"Seattle Housing Authority","institutionId":"I2905531072","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/05ba0x014","affiliations":["Seattle Housing Authority, Seattle, WA, USA"]},{"name":"Tyler Shannon","id":"openalex:A5111114811","affiliation":"King County Housing Authority, Tukwila, WA, USA","affiliations":["King County Housing Authority, Tukwila, WA, USA"]},{"name":"Samuel Havens","id":"openalex:A5093746012","affiliation":"Washington Employment Security Department","institutionId":"I4210149573","institutionUrl":"https://ror.org/04jhpx964","affiliations":["Washington State Employment Security Department, Olympia, WA, USA"]},{"name":"Amy A. 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