About 6,462,257 results
Richard M. Soland
In the context of deterministic multicriteria maximization, a Pareto optimal, nondominated , or efficient solution is a feasible solution for which an increase in value of any one criterion can only be achieved at the expense of a decrease in value of at least one other criterion. Without restrictions of convexity or continuity, it is shown that a solution is efficient if and only if it solves an optimization problem that bounds the various criteria values from below and maximizes a strictly increasing function of these several criteria values. Also included are discussions of previous work concerned with generating or characterizing the set of efficient solutions, and of the interactive approach for resolving multicriteria optimization problems. The final section argues that the paper's main result should not actually be used to generate the set of efficient solutions, relates this result to Simon's theory of satisficing, and then indicates why and how it can be used as the basis for interactive procedures with desirable characteristics.
Christopher M. Baker, Patricia T. Campbell, Iadine Chades, Angela J. Dean +7 more
Scientific knowledge and advances are a cornerstone of modern society. They improve our understanding of the world we live in and help us navigate global challenges including emerging infectious diseases, climate change and the biodiversity crisis. For any scientist, whether they work primarily in fundamental knowledge generation or in the applied sciences, it is important to understand how science fits into a decision-making framework. Decision science is a field that aims to pinpoint evidence-based management strategies. It provides a framework for scientists to directly impact decisions or to understand how their work will fit into a decision process. Decision science is more than undertaking targeted and relevant scientific research or providing tools to assist policy makers; it is an approach to problem formulation, bringing together mathematical modelling, stakeholder values and logistical constraints to support decision making. In this paper we describe decision science, its use in different contexts, and highlight current gaps in methodology and application. The COVID-19 pandemic has thrust mathematical models into the public spotlight, but it is one of innumerable examples in which modelling informs decision making. Other examples include models of storm systems (eg. cyclones, hurricanes) and climate change. Although the decision timescale in these examples differs enormously (from hours to decades), the underlying decision science approach is common across all problems. Bridging communication gaps between different groups is one of the greatest challenges for scientists. However, by better understanding and engaging with the decision-making processes, scientists will have greater impact and make stronger contributions to important societal problems.
All decision making, and particularly expert decision making, requires the examination, evaluation, and integration of information. Research has demonstrated that the order in which information is presented plays a critical role in decision making processes and outcomes. Different decisions can be reached when the same information is presented in a different order [1,2]. Because information must always be considered in some order, optimizing this sequence is important for optimizing decisions. Since adopting one sequence or another is inevitable —some sequence must be used— and since the sequence has important cognitive implications, it follows that considering how to best sequence information is paramount. In the forensic sciences, existing approaches to optimize the order of information processing (sequential unmasking [3] and Linear Sequential Unmasking [4]) are limited in terms of their narrow applicability to only certain types of decisions, and they focus only on minimizing bias rather than optimizing forensic decision making in general. Here, we introduce Linear Sequential Unmasking–Expanded (LSU-E), an approach that is applicable to all forensic decisions rather than being limited to a particular type of decision, and it also reduces noise and improves forensic decision making in general rather than solely by minimizing bias.
Juan Aparicio, Jesus T. Pastor
There are several distance function definitions in a general production framework, including Data Envelopment Analysis, which can be used to describe the production technology and to define corresponding measures of technical efficiency (notably the Shephard and the directional distance functions). This paper introduces a generalisation of the distance function concept based on the idea of minimizing firm's opportunity cost. We further state a general dual correspondence between the cost function and this new general distance function, which encompasses all previously published duality results. All our results also hold under the assumption that we work in a Data Envelopment Analysis context.
Tarikul Islam Tamiti, Sajid Fardin Dipto, Luke Baja-Ricketts, David Vergano +1 more
We propose SwinDS-BWE, a decision-science-inspired bandwidth extension (BWE) model with two coupled contributions: (1) Swin Transformers with lattice-style cross-stream interaction yield locality-aware modeling with linear-in-sequence per-window attention cost and reduce the prior AP-BWE generator size 0.5x from 33M to 17M. (2) Three novel lightweight decision-science-inspired discriminators augment AP-BWE's performance: a CVaR discriminator tail-pools activations to emphasize worst high-frequency (HF) segments, a Chance-Constraint HF discriminator penalizes excessive HF energy via a differentiable barrier, and a Multi-Criteria Utility discriminator learns convex style weights over spectral criteria. SwinDS-BWE surpasses prior AP-BWE with a 30x smaller discriminator (42.3M vs. 1.36M) and higher fidelity on English and French datasets. This work shows that decision-science-inspired critics can supervise BWE to reduce discriminator size.
Qinghua Zhang, Deyou Xia, Kaixuan Liu, Guoyin Wang
Abstract A model of decision-theoretic three-way approximations of fuzzy sets that can calculate a pair of interpretable thresholds (α, β) by combining shadowed sets with three-way decisions was established by Deng. In that model, the significant contribution is that the value 0.5, which denotes a membership grade with the highest uncertainty, is used to replace the uncertain region with the interval [0,1] in shadowed sets. From the principle of the minimum decision cost, although the lowest overall cost can be achieved precisely in some data distributions based on the value 0.5, there is a difference between the obtained overall cost and the least cost in some cases. Therefore, in this paper, based on Deng’s model, the concept of a general three-way approximation of a fuzzy set is proposed to replace 0.5 with a variable value c(0
Kalyan Singhal, Jaya Singhal, Subodha Kumar
We have developed a measure of the value of the customer's waiting time that is applicable to all queuing systems. Since the birth of the modern queuing theory over 100 years ago, this measure is the first addition to the list of the measures of performance of general queues that includes the servers’ utilization factor, the expected queue length, the expected waiting time, and some variations of the last two. The curves for trade‐offs between the servers’ utilization factor and the value of the customer's time can be used to supplement or replace the curves for trade‐offs between the servers’ utilization factor and the customer's expected queue length (or expected waiting time) that have been a fundamental part of the modern queuing theory. The decisions made with the value of the customer's waiting time will mirror the decision maker's goals more closely than the decisions made with the customer's expected queue length or expected waiting time that are surrogates for the value of the customer's waiting time. Although our definition of the value of the customer's time is deceptively simple, its implications can be significant and far reaching. It could change the way we pursue research in the queuing theory, the way we teach the queuing theory, and the way we design queuing systems in practice.
Noel Cressie
Decision-makers abhor uncertainty, and it is certainly true that the less there is of it the better. However, recognizing that uncertainty is part of the equation, particularly for deciding on environmental policy, is a prerequisite for making wise decisions. Even making no decision is a decision that has consequences, and using the presence of uncertainty as the reason for failing to act is a poor excuse. Statistical science is the science of uncertainty, and it should play a critical role in the decision-making process. This opinion piece focuses on the summit of the knowledge pyramid that starts from data and rises in steps from data to information, from information to knowledge, and finally from knowledge to decisions. Enormous advances have been made in the last 100 years ascending the pyramid, with deviations that have followed different routes. There has generally been a healthy supply of uncertainty quantification along the way but, in a rush to the top, where the decisions are made, uncertainty is often left behind. In my opinion, statistical science needs to be much more pro-active in evolving classical decision theory into a relevant and practical area of decision applications. This article follows several threads, building on the decision-theoretic foundations of loss functions and Bayesian uncertainty.
J. Geerts, Fabian Chersi, Kimberly L. Stachenfeld, N. Burgess
Significance A central question in neuroscience concerns how humans and animals trade off multiple decision-making strategies. Another question pertains to the use of egocentric and allocentric strategies during navigation. We introduce reinforcement-learning models based on learning to predict future reward directly from states and actions or via learning to predict future “successor” states, choosing actions from either system based on the reliability of its predictions. We show that this model explains behavior on both spatial and nonspatial decision tasks, and we map the two model components onto the function of the dorsal hippocampus and the dorsolateral striatum, thereby unifying findings from the spatial-navigation and decision-making fields. Humans and other animals use multiple strategies for making decisions. Reinforcement-learning theory distinguishes between stimulus–response (model-free; MF) learning and deliberative (model-based; MB) planning. The spatial-navigation literature presents a parallel dichotomy between navigation strategies. In “response learning,” associated with the dorsolateral striatum (DLS), decisions are anchored to an egocentric reference frame. In “place learning,” associated with the hippocampus, decisions are anchored to an allocentric reference frame. Emerging evidence suggests that the contribution of hippocampus to place learning may also underlie its contribution to MB learning by representing relational structure in a cognitive map. Here, we introduce a computational model in which hippocampus subserves place and MB learning by learning a “successor representation” of relational structure between states; DLS implements model-free response learning by learning associations between actions and egocentric representations of landmarks; and action values from either system are weighted by the reliability of its predictions. We show that this model reproduces a range of seemingly disparate behavioral findings in spatial and nonspatial decision tasks and explains the effects of lesions to DLS and hippocampus on these tasks. Furthermore, modeling place cells as driven by boundaries explains the observation that, unlike navigation guided by landmarks, navigation guided by boundaries is robust to “blocking” by prior state–reward associations due to learned associations between place cells. Our model, originally shaped by detailed constraints in the spatial literature, successfully characterizes the hippocampal–striatal system as a general system for decision making via adaptive combination of stimulus–response learning and the use of a cognitive map.
Gary A. Kochenberger, Bruce A. McCarl, F. Paul Wyman
Hazem Ibrahim, Yasir Zaki
Computational social science increasingly relies on large language models for text annotation, and the validity of published findings now rests on the labels generated by such models. Decision models, a new model class built for categorical question answering, answer typed questions with a choice, a probability distribution over the label set, and a confidence score rather than free text, at a small fraction of frontier inference prices. Whether their answers are accurate, and whether that stated confidence can be trusted on social science constructs, are unknown. Here, we mirror the evaluation of Ziems et al. (2024) on 18 computational social science classification tasks (7,977 items), comparing the first commercial decision model and two open-weight counterparts against 19 frontier and open-weight language models under the same zero-shot protocol, and extending the decision-model comparison to eleven open-weight systems released in the week after it. The decision model trails the per-task best LLM on 14 of 15 evaluation tasks, with a median deficit of 11.6 macro-F1 points, at a median 44 times lower measured cost. Its confidence is better calibrated than the verbalized confidence of 16 of the 19 LLMs, yet three frontier models show lower median calibration error (0.157 against 0.066). While items above 0.9 confidence are typically labeled accurately (median accuracy 0.815), on one task, empathy in peer-support dialogues, the model reports high confidence while performing near chance. Nonetheless, our results suggest that decision models are useful as a first step in the annotation pipeline: routing low-confidence items to an LLM matches or exceeds the LLM alone at a quarter to half of its cost.
A. Antoniadi, Yu-Han Du, Yasmine Guendouz, Lan Wei +3 more
Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence (AI) more broadly have great immediate and future potential for transforming almost all aspects of medicine. However, in many applications, even outside medicine, a lack of transparency in AI applications has become increasingly problematic. This is particularly pronounced where users need to interpret the output of AI systems. Explainable AI (XAI) provides a rationale that allows users to understand why a system has produced a given output. The output can then be interpreted within a given context. One area that is in great need of XAI is that of Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSSs). These systems support medical practitioners in their clinic decision-making and in the absence of explainability may lead to issues of under or over-reliance. Providing explanations for how recommendations are arrived at will allow practitioners to make more nuanced, and in some cases, life-saving decisions. The need for XAI in CDSS, and the medical field in general, is amplified by the need for ethical and fair decision-making and the fact that AI trained with historical data can be a reinforcement agent of historical actions and biases that should be uncovered. We performed a systematic literature review of work to-date in the application of XAI in CDSS. Tabular data processing XAI-enabled systems are the most common, while XAI-enabled CDSS for text analysis are the least common in literature. There is more interest in developers for the provision of local explanations, while there was almost a balance between post-hoc and ante-hoc explanations, as well as between model-specific and model-agnostic techniques. Studies reported benefits of the use of XAI such as the fact that it could enhance decision confidence for clinicians, or generate the hypothesis about causality, which ultimately leads to increased trustworthiness and acceptability of the system and potential for its incorporation in the clinical workflow. However, we found an overall distinct lack of application of XAI in the context of CDSS and, in particular, a lack of user studies exploring the needs of clinicians. We propose some guidelines for the implementation of XAI in CDSS and explore some opportunities, challenges, and future research needs.
James D. Blocher, Dilip Chhajed, Mark Leung
The primary objective of this study is to examine the performance of order‐based dispatching rules in a general job shop, where the environmental factors are shop utilization and due date tightness. An order is defined as a collection of jobs that are shipped as a group—an order—to the customer, only on completion of the last job of the order. We specifically compare dispatching rules from past job‐based studies to some rules adapted to encompass order characteristics. Standard flow time and tardiness measures are used, but in addition, we introduce measures that combine average performance with variation in an attempt to capture the performance of a majority of the orders processed in the shop. Of the 16 dispatching rules tested, our results show that four of the simple rules dominate the others. We also found that order‐based rules perform better than their job‐based counterparts. The study makes use of multivariate statistical analysis, in addition to the usual univariate tests, which can provide additional insight to managers using multiple criteria in their decision process.
Tarikul Islam Tamiti, Sajid Fardin Dipto, David Vergano, Luke Baja-Ricketts +1 more
Bandwidth extension (BWE) is fundamentally localized: the most perceptual distortions are not average-case distortions, but rare high-frequency (HF) transients that standard, risk-neutral objectives tend to smooth away. To close this gap, we seek solutions in the risk-sensitive and uncertainty-aware decision science rules and present UDSS-BWE, which introduces five decision-science and uncertainty-aware discriminators: CVaRD (does tail pooling to amplify HF artifacts), CCD (a primal-dual augmented Lagrangian to prevent HF overboost), MCUD (a learnable utility over spectral flatness/ centroid/ rolloff), EDD (captures epistemic uncertainty), and DROD (captures entropic KL-DRO aggregation). UDSS-BWE is also designed as a complex valued adversarial BWE framework that uses Swin-based generators, a lightweight dual-stream shifted-window backbone, to capture local and long-range structure efficiently, while learnable lattice coupling provides controlled cross-stream exchange. UDSS-BWE is optimized extensively and achieves better perceptual quality with 3.89x fewer parameters (72M vs.18.5M) over two English and French datasets under clean and noisy conditions. To the best of our knowledge, this work shows how multi disciplinary decision-science-inspired and uncertainty theories can be successfully used to design efficient discriminators for producing more nuanced audios, establishing a new baseline in the BWE task.
Li Zhang, J. Zhan, Ze-Shui Xu, J. Alcantud
Abstract This paper concerns the intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) decision-making method for solving uncertain or vague problems. This traditional method has imperfections in some particular circumstances. For this reason, we combine rough set theory and the IF decision-making approach in order to design a novel procedure for making decisions. Several types of covering-based general multigranulation IF rough set (CGMIFRS) models are proposed by using four types of IF neighborhoods. A related example to illustrate these models is given. Furthermore, the relationships among the eight kinds of CGMIFRS models are also investigated. By the recourse to the principle of the PROMETHEE II method, a multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) approach with IF information based on CGMIFRS models is set forth. A comparative analysis shows that the optimal objects of our method based on two IF logical operators, the IF PROMETHEE method and the IF aggregation operators are consistent. We conclude that our novel method is more effective to deal with MAGDM problems with IF information than the existing MAGDM methods.
Vandra L. Huber
This study compares specific and general performance standards as managerial decision aids. Sixty‐four federal government comptrollers familiar with performance standards as a basis for judging performance evaluated five performance profiles and then assigned performance ratings. These profiles varied in levels of objective performance, prior performance, and the order in which they were evaluated. The results show that the specificity of performance standards moderates the relationship between objective and rated performance, with specific standards resulting in more accurate ratings than general standards. While objective performance was the most important determinant of performance rating, the gender of the rater, the order of evaluation, and prior performance ratings biased judgments in the general but not the specific performance standard condition. Specific performance standards are concluded to be useful decision aids that minimize performance rating bias and have potential as evaluation tools for groups, profit centers, organizations, and technology innovations.
Frederic Becker, Julian Skirzyński, Bas van Opheusden, Falk Lieder
Human decision-making is plagued by many systematic errors. Many of these errors can be avoided by providing decision aids that guide decision-makers to attend to the important information and integrate it according to a rational decision strategy. Designing such decision aids used to be a tedious manual process. Advances in cognitive science might make it possible to automate this process in the future. We recently introduced machine learning methods for discovering optimal strategies for human decision-making automatically and an automatic method for explaining those strategies to people. Decision aids constructed by this method were able to improve human decision-making. However, following the descriptions generated by this method is very tedious. We hypothesized that this problem can be overcome by conveying the automatically discovered decision strategy as a series of natural language instructions for how to reach a decision. Experiment 1 showed that people do indeed understand such procedural instructions more easily than the decision aids generated by our previous method. Encouraged by this finding, we developed an algorithm for translating the output of our previous method into procedural instructions. We applied the improved method to automatically generate decision aids for a naturalistic planning task (i.e., planning a road trip) and a naturalistic decision task (i.e., choosing a mortgage). Experiment 2 showed that these automatically generated decision-aids significantly improved people's performance in planning a road trip and choosing a mortgage. These findings suggest that AI-powered boosting might have potential for improving human decision-making in the real world.
Christos P. Koulamas
This paper presents stochastic models for analyzing production to stock and production on demand systems with arbitrary demand, production, machine breakdown and repair processes, and a finite buffer. Expressions are developed for the transition probabilities among the different states, the proportion of transitions that take the process to a particular state, the probabilities that the process is at a particular state, and the expected state residence times. Also, expressions are developed for some quantities of interest, like average inventory, percentage of lost sales, and expected waiting time. Applications are discussed for various demand, production, machine breakdown, and repair processes and numerical examples are presented. Guidelines are given for utilizing the models in evaluating the economic performance of production systems. Using an approximation procedure, the models are used for modeling multi‐stage serial production to stock and production on demand lines. Simulation results indicated that the quality of the approximation is very good. The multi‐stage models are useful in practical situations, because they allow the use of different probability distributions for the various processes (production, machine failure, etc.) of each stage.
Andrei Khrennikov
We consider the following model of decision-making by cognitive systems. We present an algorithm -- quantum-like representation algorithm (QLRA) -- which provides a possibility to represent probabilistic data of any origin by complex probability amplitudes. Our conjecture is that cognitive systems developed the ability to use QLRA. They operate with complex probability amplitudes, mental wave functions. Since the mathematical formalism of QM describes as well (under some generalization) processing of such quantum-like (QL) mental states, the conventional quantum decision-making scheme can be used by the brain. We consider a modification of this scheme to describe decision-making in the presence of two ``incompatible'' mental variables. Such a QL decision-making can be used in situations like Prisoners Dilemma (PD) as well as others corresponding to so called disjunction effect in psychology and cognitive science.
Benjamin P. Pritchard, Doaa Altarawy, B. T. Didier, Tara D. Gibson +1 more
The Basis Set Exchange (BSE) has been a prominent fixture in the quantum chemistry community. First publicly available in 2007, it is recognized by both users and basis set creators as the de facto source for information related to basis sets. This popular resource has been rewritten, utilizing modern software design and best practices. The basis set data has been separated into a separate library, and the website updated to use the current generation of web development libraries. The general layout and workflow of the website is preserved, while small but helpful features have been added. Overall, this design should increase adaptability and lend itself well into the future as a dependable resource for the computational chemistry community. This article will discuss the decision to rewrite the BSE, the new architecture and design, and the new features that have been added.
Rogerio Rossi
Data and Science has stood out in the generation of results, whether in the projects of the scientific domain or business domain. CERN Project, Scientific Institutes, companies like Walmart, Google, Apple, among others, need data to present their results and make predictions in the competitive data world. Data and Science are words that together culminated in a globally recognized term called Data Science. Data Science is in its initial phase, possibly being part of formal sciences and also being presented as part of applied sciences, capable of generating value and supporting decision making. Data Science considers science and, consequently, the scientific method to promote decision making through data intelligence. In many cases, the application of the method (or part of it) is considered in Data Science projects in scientific domain (social sciences, bioinformatics, geospatial projects) or business domain (finance, logistic, retail), among others. In this sense, this article addresses the perspectives of Data Science as a multidisciplinary area, considering science and the scientific method, and its formal structure which integrate Statistics, Computer Science, and Business Science, also taking into account Artificial Intelligence, emphasizing Machine Learning, among others. The article also deals with the perspective of applied Data Science, since Data Science is used for generating value through scientific and business projects. Data Science persona is also discussed in the article, concerning the education of Data Science professionals and its corresponding profiles, since its projection changes the field of data in the world.
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Lena Maier-Hein, Swaroop Vedula, Stefanie Speidel, Nassir Navab +21 more
This paper introduces Surgical Data Science as an emerging scientific discipline. Key perspectives are based on discussions during an intensive two-day international interactive workshop that brought together leading researchers working in the related field of computer and robot assisted interventions. Our consensus opinion is that increasing access to large amounts of complex data, at scale, throughout the patient care process, complemented by advances in data science and machine learning techniques, has set the stage for a new generation of analytics that will support decision-making and quality improvement in interventional medicine. In this article, we provide a consensus definition for Surgical Data Science, identify associated challenges and opportunities and provide a roadmap for advancing the field.
Igl Conference, Alfonso Gambardella
J GARCIALAPRESTA
Ahmet Yasin Aytar, Kemal Kilic, Kamer Kaya
In the rapidly evolving field of data science, efficiently navigating the expansive body of academic literature is crucial for informed decision-making and innovation. This paper presents an enhanced Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) application, an artificial intelligence (AI)-based system designed to assist data scientists in accessing precise and contextually relevant academic resources. The AI-powered application integrates advanced techniques, including the GeneRation Of BIbliographic Data (GROBID) technique for extracting bibliographic information, fine-tuned embedding models, semantic chunking, and an abstract-first retrieval method, to significantly improve the relevance and accuracy of the retrieved information. This implementation of AI specifically addresses the challenge of academic literature navigation. A comprehensive evaluation using the Retrieval-Augmented Generation Assessment System (RAGAS) framework demonstrates substantial improvements in key metrics, particularly Context Relevance, underscoring the system's effectiveness in reducing information overload and enhancing decision-making processes. Our findings highlight the potential of this enhanced Retrieval-Augmented Generation system to transform academic exploration within data science, ultimately advancing the workflow of research and innovation in the field.