Risk factors of renal failure progression two years prior to dialysis.

AIM: The respective contribution of sex, type of nephropathy, degree of proteinuria, blood pressure, protein and sodium daily intakes, blood lipid profile, protidemia, hemoglobinemia, acidosis and CaPO4 product on the rate of renal failure progression is debated. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The link between these parameters and the decrease of creatinine clearance, deltaCcr (according to Cockroft) was assessed in uni- and multivariate analysis in a population of 49 patients (26 women; age 60+/-15 years, weight 79+/-15 kg) selected out of 173 presently treated hemodialysis patients on the basis of availability of a quarterly follow-up for 2 years before starting dialysis. The patients were advised a moderate protein and salt restriction which could be retrospectively assessed (on urinary excretion of urea and sodium) at, respectively, 0.82 g/kg/day and 6.5 g/day. RESULTS: The 2-year deltaCcr was 14+/-14 ml/min. It was not different in men and women. This decrease in Ccr was neither significantly different in gomerular disease (17+/-8, n = 14), diabetic nephropathy (12+/-6, n = 7), nephroangiosclerosis (15+/-8, n = 5), interstitial nephritis (12+/-10, n = 14), and PKD (11 +/-12, n = 9). Patients with antihypertensive drugs (n = 42) had a faster progression than those without drugs (n = 7): deltaCcr = 15+/-14 vs 7+/-7 ml/min (p < 0.05) in spite of comparable blood pressure but with higher proteinuria. Linear regression of deltaCcr with the initial and 2-year averaged values of the quantitative parameters showed a significant positive link for both values with cholesterol, hemoglobine and proteinuria and a negative one with protidemia. A positive link was observed with the initial value of bicarbonate and the 2-year mean of diastolic and mean blood pressures. No link at all was observed with urea and Na excretion, CaPO4 product and triglycerides. Multiple regression disclosed a significant link only for protidemia (negative with both initial and 2-year averaged value), diastolic BP (only for the 2-year averaged value and hemoglobinemia (for the initial value). When the patients were classified according to a threshold value of their protidemia, DBP, hemoglobinemia, and cholesterolemia those with the combination of 2 risk factors of progression (protidemia > or = 66 g/l, DBP > or = 90 mmHg, hemoglobinemia > 11 g/dl, proteinuria > or = 3 g/d, CT > 5 mmol/l) had a significantly greater decrease of Ccr than those with the 3 other combinations at the exception of the association of low protidemia with DBP. CONCLUSION: Diastolic hypertension and low protidemia are the 2 most important factors predicting progression of renal failure. A predictive synergy was furthermore pointed out between low protidemia or diastolic hypertension with proteinuria and cholesterol. On the contrary anemia attenuates progression linked to low protidemia, diastolic hypertension, proteinuria and high cholesterol.