Exploring Predictive Modelling Tools for TOD - Induced Gentrification: A Social Resilience Perspective

Abstract Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) has been elevated as a sustainable urban planning model that supports developments like mixed-use, compact, and walkable neighbourhoods centred on public transit. Even with these benefits, TOD frequently catalyses gentrification as a subset of its impact on developments, marked by rising land values, demographic shifts, and displacement pressures. These transformations often lead to rapid unfolding around transit corridors, intensify socio-spatial inequalities, and reshape neighbourhood dynamics. Despite such changes like spatial and economic effects, most research has neglected the social resilience, the community’s capacity to adapt and sustain cohesion under change. This gap becomes vitally important in cities where socially diverse communities face heightened vulnerability to redevelopment pressures. By understanding the theoretical foundations, comparing modelling approaches for the same, and identifying gaps, this review raises critical research questions regarding the absence of social resilience indicators in predictive models of TOD-induced gentrification and underscores the need for future research to address this deficiency.