El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on local weather, arboviral diseases, and dynamics of managed and unmanaged populations of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Puerto Rico

We investigated the effects of interannual El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on local weather, Aedes aegypti populations, and combined cases of dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV) viruses in 2 communities with mass mosquito trapping and 2 communities without mosquito control in southern Puerto Rico (2013-2019). Gravid adult Ae. aegypti populations were monitored weekly using Autocidal Gravid Ovitraps (AGO traps). Managing Ae. aegypti populations was done using 3 AGO traps per home in most homes. There were drought conditions in 2014-2015 concurrent with the emergence of a strong El Niño (2014-2016), wetter conditions during La Niña (2016-2018), a major hurricane (2017), and a weaker El Niño (2018-2019). The main factor explaining differences in Ae. aegypti abundance across sites was mass trapping. Populations of Ae. aegypti reached maximum seasonal values during the wetter and warmer months of the year when arbovirus epidemics occurred. El Niño was significantly associated with severe droughts that did not impact the populations of Ae. aegypti. Arbovirus cases at the municipality level were positively correlated with lagged values (5-12 mo.) of the Oceanic El Niño Index (ONI), droughts, and abundance of Ae. aegypti. The onset of strong El Niño conditions in Puerto Rico may be useful as an early warning signal for arboviral epidemics in areas where the abundance of Ae. aegypti exceeds the mosquito density threshold value.