Spatio-temporal characteristics of dengue outbreaks
Saulo D. S. Reisa, Lucas Böttcher, João P. da C. Nogueira, Geziel dos Santos de Sousab c, Antonio S. Lima Netoc d, Hans Jürgen Herrmanna e, José S. Andradea
- aDepartamento de Física , Universidade Federal do Ceará , 60451-970 Fortaleza , Ceará , Brazil
- bDepartamento de Saúde Coletiva , Universidade Federal do Ceará , Fortaleza , Ceará , Brazil
- cSecretaria Municipal de Saúde de Fortaleza (SMS-Fortaleza) , Fortaleza , Ceará , Brazil
- dUniversidade de Fortaleza (UNIFOR) , Fortaleza , Ceará , Brazil
- ePMMH. ESPCI , 7 quai St. Bernard , 75005 Paris , France
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Abstract
After their re-emergence in the last decades, dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases are a potential threat to the lives of millions of people. Based on a data set of dengue cases in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza, collected from 2011 to 2016, we study the spatio-temporal characteristics of dengue outbreaks to characterize epidemic and non-epidemic years. First, we identify regions that show a high prevalence of dengue cases and mosquito larvae in different years and also analyze their corresponding correlations. Our results show that the characteristic correlation length of the epidemic is of the order of the system size, suggesting that factors such as citizen mobility may play a major role as a drive for spatial spreading of vector-borne diseases. Inspired by this observation, we perform a mean-field estimation of the basic reproduction number and find that our estimated values agree well with the values reported for other regions, pointing towards similar underlying spreading mechanisms. These findings provide insights into the spreading characteristics of dengue in densely populated areas and should be of relevance for the design of improved disease containment strategies.