Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic
David J. Pricea b, Freya M. Shearera✉, Michael T. Meehanc, Emma Sue McBrydec, Robert G. Mossa, Nick Goldingd, Eamon J Conwayb, Peter Dawsone f, Deborah Cromerg h, James Woodi, Sam Abbottj, Jodie McVernona b k, James M. McCawa b l
- aCentre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
- bVictorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory Epidemiology Unit at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
- cAustralian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia
- dTelethon Kids Institute and Curtin University, Perth, Australia
- eDefence Science and Technology, Department of Defence, Australia
- fDefence Science and Technology, Department of Defence, Canberra, Australia
- gKirby Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- hSchool of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- iSchool of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
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Abstract
As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis - for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).