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Only strict quarantine measures can curb the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Italy, 2020
Henrik Sjödina, Annelies Wilder‐Smithb c d, Sarah Osmanc, Zia Farooqa, Joacim Rocklöva
- aDepartment of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- bDepartment of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom
- cDepartment of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- dHeidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Germany
EurosurveillanceEuropean Centre for Disease Prevention and Control2020-04-02 339 citations17 references
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Abstract
Several Italian towns are under lockdown to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. The level of transmission reduction required for physical distancing interventions to mitigate the epidemic is a crucial question. We show that very high adherence to community quarantine (total stay-home policy) and a small household size is necessary for curbing the outbreak in a locked-down town. The larger the household size and amount of time in the public, the longer the lockdown period needed.