Strengthening risk-informed decision-making: scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to extreme events
Joern Birkmanna, Holger Sautera, Ali Jamsheda, Linda Sorgb, Mark Fleischhauerc, Simone Sandholzd, Mia Wannewitze, Stefan Greivingc, Bjoern Bueterf, Melanie Schneiderf, Matthias Garschagene
- aInstitute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany
- bCity Administration Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany
- cFaculty of Spatial Planning, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany
- dUnited Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany
- eFaculty of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, München, Germany
- fGEO-NET Umweltconsulting GmbH, Hannover, Germany
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Abstract
Purpose Enhancing the resilience of cities and strengthening risk-informed decision-making are defined as key within the Global Agenda 2030. Implementing risk-informed decision-making also requires the consideration of scenarios of exposure and vulnerability. Therefore, the paper presents selected scenario approaches and illustrates how such vulnerability scenarios can look like for specific indicators and how they can inform decision-making, particularly in the context of urban planning. Design/methodology/approach The research study uses the example of heat stress in Ludwigsburg, Germany, and adopts participatory and quantitative forecasting methods to develop scenarios for human vulnerability and exposure to heat stress. Findings The paper indicates that considering changes in future vulnerability of people is important to provide an appropriate information base for enhancing urban resilience through risk-informed urban planning. This can help cities to define priority areas for future urban development and to consider the socio-economic and demographic composition in their strategies. Originality/value The value of the research study lies in implementing new qualitative and quantitative scenario approaches for human exposure and vulnerability to strengthen risk-informed decision-making.