Reconstructing historical patterns of primary production in Puget Sound using growth increment data from shells of long-lived geoducks (Panopea generosa)

Bottom-up hypotheses predict that changes in primary production affect marine survival of species like Pacific salmon. Long term records of primary production would provide important data to test these predictions. However, direct observations of primary production (in situ fluorometers, water chemistry, and satellite observations of color back-scatter) have relatively short time series (< 30 years). We investigated whether growth increments of geoduck clams (Panopea generosa) are correlated with primary production in different sub-basins of greater Puget Sound. Geoduck are long-lived (older specimens live >100 years), widely distributed throughout the Salish Sea, and deposit annual growth rings in their shells. Shell samples from aged geoducks were by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife in four sub-basins within greater Puget Sound (Strait of Jan de Fuca, Southern Strait of Georgia, South Puget Sound, and Central Basin). Geoduck shells from Saratoga passage were provided by the Tulalip Tribe. Using growth indices, the known correlation of growth indices with sea surface temperature and other long-term measurements, and existing basin-level records of temperature and primary production, we modeled historical patterns of primary production in different regions of greater Puget Sound. Analyses show that the relationship between geoduck growth, temperature, and primary production varies between sub-basins, and stable isotope analysis suggests that geoducks may be more than just primary consumers. These issues make reconstruction of a historical record of primary production from growth increments challenging. Nevertheless, analyses suggest that residual growth (after accounting for temperature variation) can explain variation in annual marine survival of local coho and chinook salmon stocks. This indicates the method has promise for retrospective hypothesis testing.