Alzheimer's disease: 3‐Dimensional MRI texture for prediction of conversion from mild cognitive impairment

Abstract Introduction Currently, there are no tools that can accurately predict which patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) will progress to Alzheimer's disease (AD). Texture analysis uses image processing and statistical methods to identify patterns in voxel intensities that cannot be appreciated by visual inspection. Our main objective was to determine whether MRI texture could be used to predict conversion of MCI to AD. Methods A method of 3‐dimensional, whole‐brain texture analysis was used to compute texture features from T1‐weighted MR images. To assess predictive value, texture changes were compared between MCI converters and nonconverters over a 3‐year observation period. A predictive model using texture and clinical factors was used to predict conversion of patients with MCI to AD. This model was then tested on ten randomly selected test groups from the data set. Results Texture features were found to be significantly different between normal controls (n = 225), patients with MCI (n = 382), and patients with AD (n = 183). A subset of the patients with MCI were used to compare between MCI converters (n = 98) and nonconverters (n = 106). A composite model including texture features, APOE‐ε4 genotype, Mini‐Mental Status Examination score, sex, and hippocampal occupancy resulted in an area under curve of 0.905. Application of the composite model to ten randomly selected test groups (nonconverters = 26, converters = 24) predicted MCI conversion with a mean accuracy of 76.2%. Discussion Early texture changes are detected in patients with MCI who eventually progress to AD dementia. Therefore, whole‐brain 3D texture analysis has the potential to predict progression of patients with MCI to AD.