The potential for vaccination-induced herd immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant
David Hodgsona, Stefan Flaschea, Mark Jita, Adam J. Kucharskia, CMMID COVID-19 Working Groupa b
- aCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- bThe members of the Working Group are listed below
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Abstract
We assess the feasibility of reaching the herd immunity threshold against SARS-CoV-2 through vaccination, considering vaccine effectiveness (VE), transmissibility of the virus and the level of pre-existing immunity in populations, as well as their age structure. If highly transmissible variants of concern become dominant in areas with low levels of naturally-acquired immunity and/or in populations with large proportions of < 15 year-olds, control of infection without non-pharmaceutical interventions may only be possible with a VE ≥ 80%, and coverage extended to children.