Recent changes in spatiotemporal patterns of heat extremes in South Asia
Abhirup Banerjeea✉, Shraddha Guptab c✉, Pranava Priyanshud, Ankan Kare, Ruby Sahaf, Tanujit Chakrabortyg h✉, Dibakar Ghoshd, Jürgen Kurthsc i✉, Chittaranjan Hensj
- aInstitute of Oceanography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
- bDepartment of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany
- cPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)–Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- dIndian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India
- eDepartment of Computer Science, Chennai Mathematical Institute, Tamil Nadu, India
- fDepartment of Physics, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India
- gDepartment of Science and Engineering, Sorbonne University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
- hSorbonne Center for Artificial Intelligence, Sorbonne University, Paris, France
- iDepartment of Physics, Humboldt University at Berlin, Berlin, Germany
- jCenter for Computational Natural Science and Bioinformatics, International Institute of Informational Technology, Hyderabad, India
- ✉Corresponding author
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Abstract
The likelihood of intense heatwaves in South Asia is increasing due to climate change, highlighting the need to understand their evolving spatiotemporal patterns. Using a complex network-based approach, we analyze synchronous extreme heat events across South and West Asia over three 30-year periods: two historical phases (1960–1989, 1990–2019) and a near-future projection (2020–2049) under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Our findings reveal a shift in heatwave synchronization from western and central Asia before 1990 towards Pakistan, northwest India, and the southwestern Tibetan Plateau by the mid-21st century. This shift is primarily driven by increased surface sensible heat flux, which enhances atmospheric diabatic heating and strengthens the early-summer circumglobal teleconnection. Additionally, atmospheric conditions over the North Atlantic-Greenland sector modulate South Asian heatwave synchronization. Our study provides novel insights into the evolving land-atmosphere interactions driving extreme heat events, with implications for heatwave predictability and risk assessment in a warming world.