The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever

The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever · SciRah

^aCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
^bDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
^cInfectious Disease Dynamics Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
^dThe Kids Research Institute Australia, Perth Children's Hospital, Perth, Australia
^eBoston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
^fDepartment of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
^gInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
^hUniversity of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
ⁱEpidemiology Unit, Ministry of Health, Colombo, Sri Lanka
^jSchool of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
^kOxford School of Global and Area Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
^lSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
^mDepartment of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
ⁿPandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
^oMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
^pDepartment of Microbiology, Immunology and Molecular Genetics, University of Kentucky, College of Medicine, Lexington, KY, USA
^qDepartment of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
^rVirus Genomic Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, Imperial College London, London, UK
^sDepartment of Geography and the Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
^tDepartment of Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
^uDepartment of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA
^vCurtin University, Perth, Australia
^wCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Oliver.Brady@lshtm.ac.uk
^xDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Oliver.Brady@lshtm.ac.uk
✉Corresponding author

Abstract

Arboviruses transmitted mainly by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Ae. albopictus, including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, and yellow fever virus in urban settings, pose an escalating global threat. Existing risk maps, often hampered by surveillance biases, may underestimate or misrepresent the true distribution of these diseases and do not incorporate epidemiological similarities despite shared vector species. We address this by generating new global environmental suitability maps for Aedes-borne arboviruses using a multi-disease ecological niche model with a nested surveillance model fit to a dataset of over 21,000 occurrence points. This reveals a convergence in suitability around a common global distribution with recent spread of chikungunya and Zika closely aligning with areas suitable for dengue. We estimate that 5.66 (95% confidence interval 5.64-5.68) billion people live in areas suitable for dengue, chikungunya and Zika and 1.54 (1.53-1.54) billion people for yellow fever. We find large national and subnational differences in surveillance capabilities with higher income more accessible areas more likely to detect, diagnose and report viral diseases, which may have led to overestimation of risk in the United States and Europe. When combined with estimates of uncertainty, these suitability maps can be used by ministries of health to target limited surveillance and intervention resources in new strategies against these emerging threats. Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes have an expanding global distribution and identifying areas at risk is important for public health planning. Here, the authors present global disease maps for dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever through a multi-disease ecological niche modelling approach.

TL;DRNew global environmental suitability maps for Aedes-borne arboviruses using a multi-disease ecological niche model with a nested surveillance model fit to a dataset of over 21,000 occurrence points are generated and reveal a convergence in suitability around a common global distribution. (Semantic Scholar)

The overlapping global distribution of dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever

Abstract

Plain-language summary

Discussion