Modeling the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on speeding at rural roadway facilities in Maine using short-term speed and traffic count data
A. Shahlaeea, M. Shirazib✉, Ennis Marshallc, J. Ivand
- aDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, United States. Electronic address: amirhossein.shahlaeegilan@maine.edu
- bDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, United States. Electronic address: shirazi@maine.edu
- cDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, United States. Electronic address: ennis.marshall@maine.edu
- dDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, United States. Electronic address: john.ivan@uconn.edu
- ✉Corresponding author
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant change in traffic operations and safety. For instance, various U.S. states reported an increase in the rate of fatal and severe injury crashes over this duration. In April and May of 2020, comprehensive stay-at-home orders were issued across the country, including in Maine. These orders resulted in drastic reductions in traffic volume. Additionally, there is anecdotal evidence that speed enforcement had been reduced during pandemic. Drivers responded to these changes by increasing their speed. More importantly, data show that speeding continues to occur, even one year after the onset of the pandemic. This study develops statistical models to quantify the impact of the pandemic on speeding in Maine. We developed models for three rural facility types (i.e., major collectors, minor arterials, and principal arterials) using a mixed effect Binomial regression model and short duration speed and traffic count data collected at continuous count stations in Maine. Our results show that the odds of speeding by more than 15 mph increased by 34% for rural major collectors, 32% for rural minor arterials, and 51% for rural principal arterials (non-Interstates) during the stay-at-home order in April and May of 2020 compared to the same months in 2019. In addition, the odds of speeding by more than 15 mph, in April and May of 2021, one year after the order, were still 27% higher on rural major collectors and 17% higher on rural principal arterials compared to the same months in 2019.